Thursday, May 11, 2023

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.5 -1.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 72.75 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.5 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 53.0 +1.5%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.14 -4.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -.12%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +..30%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and tech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Regional Bank Contagion Concerns, Global Growth Worries, Financial/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.2 +1.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .79%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.0 -4.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.7 -.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.83 +2.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.7 +2.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +25.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .86 -8.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.03 -27.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.5 +.68%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 421.95 +1.87%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 425.0 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.07 +.97% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 394.38 +.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 189.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.3 -2.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 247.84 -.27%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 basis points -4.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 17.5 basis points +5.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 -2.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 165.0 -6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 711.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 -.4%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.15% -7.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.7 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.0 euros/megawatt-hour unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.8 -4.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.1 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.1 -4.5 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) -3.9% -.3 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.83 -.01:  Growth Rate +2.2% unch., P/E 18.2 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% -.1 percentage point
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 197.63 n/a: Growth Rate +29.99% n/a, P/E 32.2 n/a
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.14 -11.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.57 -17.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -50.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.14% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 52.2%(-5.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 49.2%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +26 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +51 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -3.5% 2) Oil Service -3.1% 3) Regional Banks -1.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PCTY, DVA, EE, SIL, HAL, NICE, ZION, SCPH, WIRE, MOS, SLB, GRBK, NICE, IVZ, UTZ, WIRE, DRD, EE, SSL, TSE, LSCC, COUR, GRBK, CVI, WYNN, SIMO, TSLX, TFC, CVBF, TROX, FCX, PGTI, TECK, BSM, GO, EVRI, PAR, TAK, IDYA, SRPT, PKI, DLO, SCCO, MODG, NTR, BOWL, BOH, RDY, AHCO, G, RBA, UPST, MSTR, HPK, PYCR, DIS, CVNA, ARQT, MANU, RIOT, CUTR, GDS, BYND, BE, CPRX and SONO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KBH 2) RCL 3) WSM 4) DIS 5) GT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) IBRX 2) PACW 3) SONO 4) BYND 5) DIS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Electric Vehicles +1.2% 2) Video Gaming +.9% 3) Internet +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • APP, MGNI, GT, ACVA, ENTG, ARCT, U, CRSR, AZTA, TPR, NXT, DV, MRVI, CARG, GOOGL, SOVO, CRL and TSN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) LBTYA 2) BTG 3) TPR 4) SGML 5) APP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MAXN 2) APP 3) TNK 4) CPA 5) BLDE

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (SPB)/-.14
After the Close: 
  • None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST
  • The Import Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.6% decline in March.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for April is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.6% decline in March.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in March.
10:00 am EST
  • The Univ. of Mich. Sentiment for May is estimated to fall to 63.0 versus 63.5 in April. 
  • Univ. of Mich. 1Y-Infation Expectations for May is estimated to fall to +4.4% versus +4.6% in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Jefferson speaking and the Spain CPI report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +7.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.9 -.4
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 23.6% of Issues Advancing, 72.9% Declining
  • 18 New 52-Week Highs, 57 New Lows
  • 39.4%(-3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 45.0 -2
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.0 -4.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,518.8 +.43%
  • 1-Day Vix 11.1 -17.0%
  • Vix 17.5 +3.2% 
  • Total Put/Call .94 unch.
  • TRIN/Arms 1.05 -25.5%