Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.9 -1.9%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 77.7 -.9%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +3.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .01 +1.0 basis point
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.0 -1.1%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 160.2 -2.0%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 66.5 -.6%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 +.2
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.3 +1.5
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.9 +2.0
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.7 -1.1
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.0 +3.5
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(353 of 500 reporting) +26.8% -1.2 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 350.26 +.67: Growth Rate +26.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.30% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% +.2 percentage point
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 844.24 +2.58: Growth Rate +113.2% +.6 percentage point, P/E 19.7 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .93 -3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 47.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.35 +1.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47. euros/megawatt-hour -2.4%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 16.5% +.1 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% +20.0 basis points
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.42% -2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.22 -12.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 87.9% (-4.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 84.5%(-3.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -43 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/energy/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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