Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.1 -1.0%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.8 -.2%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 +2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.13 +1.0 basis point
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.9 -1.6%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 156.6 -.2%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 62.5 -5.0%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 +.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -.1
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.1 -.9
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.6 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +25.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 354.29 +.23: Growth Rate +27.8% unch., P/E 21.0 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.42% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 856.75 +.76: Growth Rate +116.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.3 +.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 49.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 188.8 +1.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.7 euros/megawatt-hour unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.9% -.5 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.47% +1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.21 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 98.5% (+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 90.0%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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