Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.6 -.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.0 +.5%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.27 -5.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.5 -.3%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 154.8 -.8%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 56.1 -2.8%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.0 +.8
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.8 +1.1
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -73.4 +.3
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.1 -.7
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(473 of 500 reporting) +27.5% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 359.25 +.42: Growth Rate +22.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.9 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.45% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 880.10 +3.10: Growth Rate +122.3% +.8 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.05 +3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 44.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 184.3 -.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.1 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.5% +1.7 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.3% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.48% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 90.6% (+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 73.4%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +230 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -24 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment