Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 +1.2%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.6 -.9%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 -2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 -6.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.2 +.8%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 157.0 +1.4%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 62.3 -.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.3 +.9
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.7 +1.7
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.0 +5.8
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 53.2 +2.8
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(423 of 500 reporting) +25.5% -.2 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 352.15 +.74: Growth Rate +27.1% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.9 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.36% +3.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 850.43 +1.77: Growth Rate +114.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.9 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.03 +3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 47.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.1 -.1%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.1 euros/megawatt-hour +.4%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.8% unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% +4.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.0 -5.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 90.7% (+4.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 90.0%(+6.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -499 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -157 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -88 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary/energy sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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