Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• EXCLUSIVE: China advises its largest banks to temporarily halt new loans to five US-sanctioned refiners over ties to Iranian oil.
• The Israeli army carried out an attack in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Wednesday, the first in the vicinity of the Lebanese capital since a US-brokered ceasefire came into effect last month. 
• South Korea’s equity market has overtaken Canada’s as the world’s seventh largest, propelled by insatiable demand for chips powering artificial intelligence.
• Fertilizer makers CF and Nutrien each reported nearly 20% jumps in sales for the latest quarter, showing the extent of the Iran war’s upheaval on supply chains for the key crop nutrients. 
• Fortinet shares rose as much as 24% in post-market trading after the cybersecurity company raised its full-year revenue outlook above expectations, following its largest billings expansion in over three years. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• The mainstream media is now confirming we are being robbed at grocery stores and Walmart. Product after product they take off the shelves and weigh is always short. They test Walmart shrimp, bring it to the studio and every bag is half a pound short. This has to be an intentionally large scale scam to defraud Americans at the grocery store. One or two items is a mistake. Every item they pull off the shelves being underweight at specific locations is fraud. And the amount products are underweight isn’t a small amount, it’s a huge amount. We are being robbed blind. (video)
• High Yield Recovery Rates Plunge To 35%, Down 16% From A Year Ago And Lowest Since COVID.
• Canadian Prime Minister Is Playing A Very Dangerous Game. 
• The physical North Sea oil market has weakened further, with Dated Brent down to $104 (down ~10% in one day). More importantly, physical differentials have narrowed further, with premia at $0-$2 a barrel range, lowest since the early days of the war. The message? Plenty of oil.
• DOJ said it uncovered evidence that the UCLA medical school intentionally and illegally selected applicants based on their race.
• Scientists Reveal Time Travel Could Work.
• Dot-Com Energy is back. SOX weekly RSI just hit levels not seen since March 2000.
• NOAA OKs First Deep-Sea Mining Plan For Critical Minerals In Pacific Ocean.
• Indiana Primary: Senate Incumbents Crushed By Trump-Backed Challengers.
• Iran Oil Official In Surprise Admission: 'Fate Of Our Refineries Now At Risk' As US Blockade Begins To Bite.
• Anthropocalyptic.....Anthropic's pre-IPO valuation surges to a record $1.2 trillion. This officially puts Anthropic's implied valuation up +900% since October 2025. 9th most valuable public company in the world.
• DC Police Officials Disciplined Over Allegations Of Manipulating Crime Data.
• Elon has been the longest and by far the biggest voice actively warning about the dangers of AI for a very long time. The entire reason he started OpenAI was this one thing.....to make sure AI is built for the good of humanity and not against it. Last week he took it a step further. He personally went and met with senior members of the Anthropic team to understand how they are working towards AI safety. He offered them compute on Colossus 1 only after he was sure they’re doing it right - before ending their suffering for the lack of compute and the bad PR for the last three months. The relief was instant. Anthropic immediately relaxed rate limits for all Claude users and completely removed peak time restrictions. This is exactly why Elon is the one who should be guiding us through the AI era.        
• Gold Jumps, Dollar Dumps As AMD & Imminent Iran Deal Lift Stocks & Bonds, Sink Oil.

• @CNBC

• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to climb as traders weigh Trump’s Iran threats against peace hopes.
• Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary McLane is planning to deploy self-driving trucking technology from Aurora Innovation on routes in Texas and across the U.S. Sun Belt by the end of the year, expanding on an autonomous freight pilot program the companies began in 2023.
• Stock futures are flat after the S&P 500 posts another record; traders eye developments in Iran: Live updates.
• Anthropic CEO says 80-fold growth in first quarter explains 'difficulties with compute'.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: DoorDash, Zillow Group, ARM Holdings, Fortinet and more.           

• @TheTranscript 

• Albermarle CEO: "Albemarle achieved year-over-year sales growth of more than 15% in the fourth quarter, as well as strong full-year cash flow generation and significant cost and productivity improvements." $ALB: +7% AH.
• DoorDash CEO: "We had a strong start to 2026, with rigorous execution across our business...a new high for monthly active users, and strong consumer engagement across our marketplaces." $DASH: +12% AH.
• AppLovin duble beat. $APP: -3% AH. 
• Arm CEO: "As AI becomes more agentic, demand for Arm AGI CPU, Arm’s first data center chip, has exceeded expectations, reinforcing Arm as the compute platform for the AI era" $ARM: +10% AH.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 -2.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 41.75 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 110.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Crude Oil 95.61/bbl. +.6% 
• Gold 4,712.5 USD/t oz. +.39%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 +.12%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.60 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 118.3 +1.4%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.35% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.73% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by transport and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.