Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• With no clear-cut end in sight to the Iran war, investors enter a new week under the spell of its key economic consequence: rising global interest rates, and the inflation threat they signal. 
• The US and Iran seemed far apart on a deal to end weeks of war, as a drone attack sparked a fire at a UAE nuclear plant, spotlighting the risks of a fragile ceasefire. 
• Santos and Repsol have begun commercial production of oil from their Pikka discovery in Alaska, a milestone set to help drive a resurgence of crude flows in the state. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• The size and scope of this deal underscores how unprecedented electricity demand is driving a merger wave in the once-sleepy power sector. 
• Optimism has slipped in several areas, including sales, capital spending and employment, NABE survey says. 
• The tech-fueled stock rally is looking bubble-like to some investors, and they’re turning to exotic options that better protect against an eventual slump. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

• @Zerohedge 

• Trump Tells Iran 'Clock Is Ticking, Move Fast' After New Peace Proposal As Analysts Predict Likely Return To War. 
• "We Like Shorting": Goldman Derivs Desk Sees Cracks In Meltup Trading Dynamic. 
• Market pricing of US growth (chart from a skeptical Goldman).
• Complete Q1 13-F Summary: The Fireworks In Berkshire's Post-Buffett Portfolio, And Everything Else.  
• Trump Secures $17 Billion Annual Chinese Commitment For U.S. Farm Goods.
• "Taiwan Loses Its Strategic Importance In 18 Months," Says Chamath Palihapitiya.  
• Iran Launches Crypto-Based "Hormuz Safe" Insurance Platform For Ships Crossing Strait.
• Big Pharma RINO Bill Cassidy Smoked By Trump-Endorsed Candidate In Louisiana Senate Primary.  
• Largest Ukrainian Drone Attack On Moscow In Over A Year Leaves Four Dead. 
• YouTube, Snap, And TikTok Settle Kentucky School District's Social Media Addiction Claims. 
• DOJ Probes BlackRock Private Credit Fund Valuations After Dramatic Repricings.
• Massive Mushroom Cloud 'Test' Blast Rattles Uninformed Residents Outside Jerusalem.
• AI vs Affordability And Rates.
• Axios Warns Cuba Stockpiled 300 Attack Drones With Crosshairs On U.S. Homeland.
• *IRAN REITERATES IT'S FULLY READY TO ANY RENEWED ATTACK: IRNA. *IRAN'S IRNA NEWS AGENCY CITES DEFENSE MINISTRY SPOKESMAN.
• Morgan Stanley Mid-Year Outlook: AI Strength But Continued Energy Shock Will Result In Global Recession.
• Uranium Transfer, Nuclear Limits: US Issues 5 Peace Ultimatums To Iran.
• Remember: In A Crisis, Everyone Will Consider Themselves 'The Good Guys'.
• *UAE DEFENSE MINISTRY: AIR DEFENSES DEALT WITH THREE DRONES. *2 DRONES INTERCEPTED, 1 HIT POWER GENERATOR: UAE MINISTRY.
• I attended the University of Arizona commencement ceremony, where Eric Schmidt
  @ericschmidt faced boos throughout his speech. If you don’t know how young graduates feel about AI, this post is for you. The message is clear: it reflects growing skepticism toward AI narratives coming out of Silicon Valley. I keep coming back to one question for anyone building AI: are you building for humans? Build responsible and ethical AI. AI governance and compliance matter. (video)   
• Americans Face The Highest Memorial Day Gas Prices On Record.
• *GREER: THERE'S NO CHANGE IN US POLICY ON TAIWAN. *GREER: CHINA SAID IT WANTS TO ENSURE NO ONE IMPOSES HORMUZ TOLL.
• Market Leadership Is Narrow, Increasing Summer Risk.
• Attack Drone Hits Near UAE Nuclear Power Plant.
• Most Americans Can't Afford New Homes.
• America's Medicine Supply Chain Is A National Security Vulnerability.
• The WHO Drums Up Fear With Ebola After Hantavirus Scare Fails.
• Solar Power Generation To Exceed Coal For First Time In Texas Grids.
• Why One Bank Thinks It's "Magical Thinking" That Hormuz Reopens In June.  

• @CNBC 

• Asia-Pacific markets set for mixed open as Trump’s Iran warning stokes fresh oil supply fears.
• Stock futures fall after record-setting week for Wall Street; traders await Nvidia and retail earnings: Live updates.
• Trump warns Iran to 'get moving' or 'there won’t be anything left'.
• North America’s largest commuter rail system remains shut a second day as Monday rush hour looms.
• Opening Strait of Hormuz is of 'utmost importance', Eurogroup head says ahead of G7 finance ministers' meeting.
• Ross Stores and TJX Companies among stocks with earnings momentum reporting this week.     

• @MarioNawful

• Those microplastics and chemicals that are screwing up your endocrine system? There might be a solution. Scientists at the University of Western Australia just ran a study showing that people may be able to dramatically reduce plastic chemicals in their bodies in as little as 7 days. Researchers rebuilt participants’ diets to avoid plastic exposure almost entirely, even down to cardboard grocery packaging insulated with sheep’s wool instead of plastic. After one week, BPA levels reportedly dropped by around 60%. The biggest culprits were canned food, plastic food packaging, and ultra-processed foods.

•  @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: Cuba has discussed STRIKING FLORIDA, Guantanamo Bay, and U.S. vessels after acquiring 300 military drones — Axios. This is the DUMBEST consideration I’ve heard, they’d get straight up OBLITERATED in no time. Great way to be taken over! (video)
• JUST IN: AG Todd Blanche confirms it’s ABOUT TO COME OUT as the DOJ probes the deep state coup against President Trump based on the Russia hoax. “We're finding out some incredibly troubling things, and at some point at the right time, that will be made public, and the American people will see exactly what happened to this administration and President Trump over the past decade!” (video)
• HOLY CRAP! Disgraced and indicted former FBI Director James Comey just issued a DEEP STATE call to action: "Hang on" in the shadows until a Democrat becomes president. They just SAY IT on NATIONAL TV. COMEY: "I have great confidence in the people down below...HANG ON, 2.5 years, then we can REBUILD." "If you're bragging about forcing out career prosecutors and agents because the president doesn't like a lawful investigation, something is seriously broken at the top." Lock this traitor up! (video)

• @_Qstormrider

• BREAKING: In a stunning blow to Democrats, 76% PERCENT of BLACK Americans want nationwide voter ID — in other words, the SAVE America Act. White voters: 85% want it. Latino voters: 82% want it. Another leftist narrative just got decimated. Pass voter ID. GET THIS PASSED. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• HERE WE GO. California Democrats are making a move to rig the Governor’s race Democrats are putting forth a new ballot initiative to repeal the “Top 2” candidate rule that takes the 2 leading candidates, because the 2 leading candidates are Republicans. “A new ballot initiative has been filed to repeal the state's top-two primary and return it to a party-based primary where voters like you would only vote for candidates in your own registered party”. The man behind this is Steve Maviglio, he's the former communications director for Governor Gray Davis. He's not some random nobody. Steve Maviglio a longtime Democratic insider, he’s a top Democrat operative. (video)

• @FirstSquawk

• CHINA IS DUMPING U.S. TREASURIES, WITH HOLDINGS FALLING TO THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS.

• @ValerieAnne1970

• ALARMING: Pfizer's New Lyme Disease Vaccine – Manufactured Problem For A Profitable 'Fix.' Your eyes should be on Pfizer right now. The mainstream news won't touch this because they're funded by Big Pharma... but someone has to say it. Just this month, Pfizer and Valneva released Phase 3 results for their Lyme disease vaccine. They're rushing data to the FDA for approval (could be manufacturing by late 2027). They claim 74% efficacy... but here's the massive red flag: (video)

• @OcrazioCornPop

• LIBERTY VS. RINO: Trump is campaigning hard to eliminate the Republicans with the HIGHEST Liberty Scores, while supporting those with the LOWEST. DO YOU THINK THIS IS A GOOD STRATEGY FOR THE FUTURE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY? Should Trump continue to PURGE the Freedom Caucus while supporting the John Thune & Lindsey Graham wing of the party? (pic)

• @DiscloseTV 

• JUST IN - Shipping giants CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspend all bookings to and from Cuba until further notice — Reuters.

• @BurtJonesForGA

• Brad Raffensperger is standing in the way of transparency in Georgia's elections while simultaneously running for Governor on a platform of election integrity. This must be a joke. Georgia deserves fair and transparent elections — and we will look at every avenue possible to ensure that happens. (video)

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• Brad Raffensperger is blocking the State Election Board from the Election Night Reporting Room. This is unacceptable. Georgia voters already endured the 2020 mess. We won't play games with election integrity in 2026. Time for real transparency and accountability. No more excuses. Good Morning ! Georgia’s corrupt Republican Secretary of State Raffensperger is suddenly very worried … (video)

• @ScottPeters

• Indiana - check. Louisiana - check. Texas, will you answer the call to DEFEAT Senator John Cornyn. & ELECT Ken Paxton on Tuesday, May 26th? (video)

• @HormuzLetter

• BREAKING: Iranian officials say Iran is fully prepared to seize the coastlines of the UAE and Bahrain if the UAE attempts to invade and seize Iranian-controlled islands in the Persian Gulf. This is Iran's direct response to Trump administration officials telling the UAE to invade Iran and seize Lavan Island. "Go take 'em! It would be UAE boots on the ground instead of US," a former senior Trump security official told The Telegraph yesterday.

• @Liz_Churchill10

• Incredible. Bill Gates followed through with this. “If people would cut down on their meat consumption, we could really help the planet”. “So possibly we can use human engineering to make it the case that we’re intolerant to certain types of meat”. (video)

• @Peoples_Pundit

• Few people have done more to destroy @realDonaldTrump than @LindseyGrahamSC. He passed around the Steele Dossier with his friend John McCain, told donors to let Trump burn after 2020 and J6, and helped derail his entire domestic agenda for Israel, leading him to this poll crash. (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.25 +3.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.0 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 109.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%.
• Crude Oil 107.30/bbl. +1.7%
• Gold 4,495.6 USD/t oz. -1.5% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.66 -.04%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.24 -.14%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.3 +.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.61% +2.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.15% +12.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.8 +.5%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.69%.
• S&P 500 futures -.61%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.93%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the week.