Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Falling Long-Term Rates, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.1 -.6%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.0 +.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.32 -5.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.0 -.8%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 153.0 -1.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 56.1 -2.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.7 -1.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.6 -3.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -67.3 +6.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.4 +3.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(480 of 500 reporting) +27.4% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 360.15 +.90:  Growth Rate +22.7% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.0 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.46% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 884.95 +4.85: Growth Rate +123.5% +1.2 percentage point, P/E 20.3 +.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 42.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 186.23 +1.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.8% -.7 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% -.5 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.45% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.73 +9.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 92.6% (+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 76.9%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,040 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -170 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long