Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.6 -2.5%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 77.1 -1.5%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.03 -4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.7 -3.8%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 154.8 -3.7%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 63.4 -4.6%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.4 +.1
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -.9
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.8 +1.1
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.4 +.4
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(391 of 500 reporting) +25.7% -1.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 351.41 +1.15: Growth Rate +26.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.9 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.33% +3.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 848.66 +4.42: Growth Rate +114.4% +1.2 percentage points, P/E 19.8 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.00 +7.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 48.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.3 +.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.7 euros/megawatt-hour -6.9%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.8% +1.3 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.35% -8.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.05 -18.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 86.0% (-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 83.6%(-3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2,552 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +54 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +131 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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