Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.0 -.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.1 -1.4% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 +6.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.11 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.3 -1.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.1 +.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 64.6 +.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.0 -.8

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.1 +.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.2 +1.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.6 -9.4
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(454 of 500 reporting) +25.1% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 355.29 +1.38:  Growth Rate +28.2% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.38% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 862.98 +4.63: Growth Rate +118.0% +1.2 percentage points, P/E 19.8 -.7 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .98 -4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) +6.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 182.5 +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.9% -2.3 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.60% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.14 unch.

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 94.6% (unch.) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 80.6%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +490 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/tech/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long