Tuesday, June 06, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC.com:
 The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 -1.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.25 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.97%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.9 -.57%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.2 +.42%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 -3.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 +.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Close on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Optimism, China Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.2 -3.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .69%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.9 +1.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.8 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.54 -.63%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.9 -2.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 -2.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .85 -9.6%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -24.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.4 -.65%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 388.68 -1.9%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 398.0 -19.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.5 -1.0% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 301.2 -1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 178.0 basis points +2.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.2 -.24%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 221.9 -1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.0 -.46%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 25.0 basis points +10.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.5 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 726.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 90.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.2 -.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.25% -6.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.9 euros/megawatt-hour  -12.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.0 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -88.1 -5.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.8 -1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) -3.5% -.7 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.24 +.17:  Growth Rate +3.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.6 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.9% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 20663 +4.73: Growth Rate +35.8% +3.1 percentage points, P/E 36.2 -.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.39 +12.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -82.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.96% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 52.7%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 48.5%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +250 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +52 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my medical/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +2.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 +1.1
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 74.4% of Issues Advancing, 23.0% Declining
  • 94 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
  • 48.8%(+8.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 54.0 +1.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.5 +.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,302.4 -.46%
  • 1-Day Vix 9.0 -24.5%
  • Vix 9.8 -7.3% 
  • Total Put/Call .84 -10.6%
  • TRIN/Arms .79 -20.20%

Monday, June 05, 2023

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.25 +.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.0 +1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.72%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.3 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.7 +.7%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.02 -14.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 +.22%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by tech and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Global Growth Worries, Global Bank Regulation Concerns, Regional Bank/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.9 +1.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .55%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.3 +2.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 157.1 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 -.31%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.5 +3.7% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 -5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .77 +4.1%
  • NYSE Arms .92 +18.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 -.02%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 393.65 +.98%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 417.0 +41.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.5 +.87% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 306.7 -.44%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 176.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.1 -2.34%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 222.6 -2.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.97 +.21%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.75 basis points -2.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 14.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -2.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 177.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 723.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 90.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.4 -.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.31% -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 162.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.5 euros/megawatt-hour  +20.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.2 -10.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -82.2 -9.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.2 +.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.07 +.26:  Growth Rate +2.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.6 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 201.90 -3.72: Growth Rate +32.7% -2.4 percentage points, P/E 36.9 +2.0
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .11 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.51 +12.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -80.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.96% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 52.5%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.7%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my medical/utility sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long