Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Weighs Broad Stimulus With Property Support, Rate Cuts.
• China’s Stimulus Runs Into Wall of Doubts in a Bearish Market. 
• Yen Carry Traders Cheer on Ueda’s Softly-Softly Approach to BOJ.
• Australia Reviews Financial Crisis Plans After Global Stresses.
• Trudeau Clean Grid Plan Has Alberta Leader Pledging Defiance.
• Asia Stocks Primed to Rise on Policy Rates Outlook: Markets Wrap.
• Here’s What to Expect From the Fed’s Interest Rate Decision.
• Demand for Custom AI Bots Leads to Hiring Push at India IT Firm.
• McCarthy’s Deal With Republican Rebels Risks US Government Shutdown.
• Americans Say They Need $2.2 Million to Be Considered Wealthy.
• SEC to Weigh New Artificial-Intelligence Rules for Brokerages.
• Anxiety Rocks Student Borrowers as Chance of $20,000 Relief Dims.
• JPMorgan’s Bond-Market Contrarian Sticks to Big Wager on Cash.
• US Consumer Watchdog Warns About AI’s Impact on Financial System, Housing Market.
• Traders Position for a Fed Pause But Start Unwinding Cut Wagers. 
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Zero Hedge:

• Tucker Carlson Pinpoints The Exact Moment That 'Permanent Washington' Decided To Send Trump To Prison.
• The Collapse Just Won't Stop: 10 Weeks Later, Tranheuser Busch Sales Still Cratering, Down 27%.
• The Pandemic of Nuclear Trash Talk: Victor Davis Hanson.
• NYC's Police Commissioner Abruptly Resigns; Days After Baltimore's Top Cop's Sudden Departure.
• New Jersey Bill Would Deny Funding To Schools If Their Libraries Remove Pornography.
• 22 US Troops Injured In Helicopter Accident Over Syria.
• Equity Allocation Tumbles To 5 Month Low As Everyone Plows Into Tech And Stocks Soar: June Fund Manager Survey.
• Default By Inflation Is The Real Drama In The Global Debt Market.
• US stocks gained and yields climbed as markets digested US CPI data ahead of the FOMC - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Economic Freedom Is Under Assault In Washington.
• White House Slams "Inappropriate & Disrespectful" Behavior Of Topless Trans Guests At Pride Event.
• Better than 1999.
• Fauci And Pfizer Lied To Trump About COVID-19 Vaccine, Claims Navarro.
• Yields soar to post-SVB highs amid pre-Fed positioning after in-line core CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Home Depot CEO Warns 'Organized' Theft Tsunami Is "A Big Problem".
• WTI Holds Gains After Crude Build, Biden Admin SPR-Refill News.
• Dollar Dives As Yellen Questions Reserve Currency; Bonds & Bullion Battered After Mixed CPI.

Wall Street Journal:

• Inflation Is Biden’s Election Headwind. His presidential campaign touts an economic recovery while consumers see only rising prices.
• Goldman Sachs Is at War With Itself.
• Renters Are About to Get the Upper Hand.
• The Awkward Partnership Leading the AI Boom.
• Bud Light Loses Title as Top-Selling U.S. Beer.
• Toyota Develops an EV With Simulated Stick, Engine Roar.
• What if the Most Powerful Way to Live Longer Is Just Exercise?
• From Mine to Battery: Indonesian Nickel Drives the World’s EV Market.
• First It Was Quiet Quitting, Now Workers Are Facing Off With Their Bosses.

CNBC.com:

• Here’s the inflation breakdown for May 2023, in one chart.
• Google’s return-to-office crackdown gets backlash from some employees: ‘Check my work, not my badge’.
• Eli Lilly CEO says Medicare price negotiations could harm drug development.

MarketWatch:

• ‘Greedflation’ is replacing inflation as companies raise prices for bigger profits, report finds.
• Here’s why U.S. markets might get rattled by the Fed’s next move.
• Nvidia officially closes in $1 trillion territory, becoming seventh U.S. company to hit market-cap milestone.
• Tesla stock extends record win streak to 13 days, notches biggest gain since September.

Newsmax:

• Trump Defense Team Still Taking Shape as He Pleads Not Guilty in Fla. Court.
• Rep. Mooney: Restrict DOJ Funds.
• Don Jr.: 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' Exposes Corrupt DOJ.
• Trump Calls Out Prosecutor's Conflicts, Dem Ties.
• Rep. Langworthy Talks 'Smoking Gun' of Biden Corruption.
• Rep. Fallon: Biden Bribe Scheme Makes Watergate ‘Look Like a Parking Ticket’.

Fox News:

• LIVE UPDATES: Trump to address supporters tonight in NJ
• Teacher allegedly threatens students who challenged 'woke' video during math class
• 'DARK DAY': Republicans erupt over Trump arraignment

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• JUST IN: Trump Pleads Not Guilty, No Further Conditions Imposed, No Travel Restrictions, No Cash Bond Imposed (VIDEO)
• Real Wages Under Joe Biden Were Down for the 26th Straight Month in May – A New US Record.
• JUST OUT: Tucker Responds to Trump Arrest – Reveals the Precise Moment the Government Decided to Send Trump to Prison (VIDEO).
• Kari Lake Attorney: Maricopa County’s Chain of Custody Docs Show 18,000 Illegal Ballots Were Injected The Day After The Polls Closed In 2020.
• Students Revolt Against “Pride” Month Spirit Day at Massachusetts School; Glare at Teachers, Tear Down Signs, Wear Red, White and Blue, Chant “U.S.A. Are My Pronouns!”.
• REPORT: Largest Catholic Healthcare System In America Is Performing Transgender Surgeries on Children and Providing Other “Gender Affirming” Care Services.
• Biden Regime Sends $325 Million More in Security Aid to Ukraine, Following $2.1 Billion Arm Aid Sent 4 Days Earlier.
• What Changed? Even BlackRock Is Advising Its Clients to Look At Investing In Gold.
• Curious Timing: Biden Admin, Liberal PAC Each Launch PR Offensives Supporting Unpopular Kamala Harris; Emily’s List to Spend “Tens of Millions” of Dollars Propping Up Veep.
• Globalist RINO Paul Ryan Gets BLOWN UP for Ripping President Trump and Defending Trans Children Mutilation (VIDEO).
• Global Food-Processing Giant Announces World’s Largest Lab-Grown Meat Facility to be Built in 2024.
• Biden DOJ Wants to See Trump Die in Jail – Faces 400 Years in Prison If Found Guilty on All Charges.

The Epoch Times:

• RCMP Shut Down Operations at Alleged Chinese Police Stations, House Committee Hears.
• IN-DEPTH: Intelligence Analyst Sounds Alarm on CCP’s Influence Over WHO Through ‘One Health’ Ideologies.

Twitter: 

• @CitizenFreePres - Demonic. (video)
  
• @amuse - FLASHBACK: Biden bragging about getting the Ukrainian prosecutor investigating Burisma fired. (video)
• @theinformantofc - #Biden's HHS assistant #trans secretary #RachelLevine calls child mutilation "necessary." “Gender-affirming care is medically necessary, safe, and effective for transgender and nonbinary youth.” (video) 
• @zerohedge - Inventory changes across the semiconductor space. (graph)
• @EricCortellessa - @KariLake's new song "81 Million Votes, My Ass" is now the #1 song on iTunes.
• @Breaking911 - TRUMP: "Today, we witnessed the most evil and heinous abuse of power in the history of our country. A corrupt sitting president had his top political opponent arrested on fake and fabricated charges of which he and numerous other presidents would be guilty." (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 964,389 Reports(+1,106 from prior week) Through June 2nd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 -.75 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 61.0 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 111.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.64%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.1 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.0 +1.5%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .04 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 +.03%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.11%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Fed Pause Expectations, China Stimulus Hopes, Meme Stock Frenzy, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -2.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .59%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.1 +3.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 158.9 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 -1.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.4 -.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 147.0 +14.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .71 -18.4%

• NYSE Arms .68 -20.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.2 -.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 372.41 -2.95%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 419.0 +8.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.65 +.12% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 287.7 +.06%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.9 +.05%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.1 -.19%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 +.1%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 34.25 basis points +3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 731.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 85.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.1 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.21% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.1 euros/megawatt-hour  +16.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.7 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -89.8 +2.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.10 -2.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.59 +.05:  Growth Rate +3.1% unch., P/E 18.9 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 207.74 +.10: Growth Rate +36.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 36.9 +.8
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .08 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.17 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -86.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.20% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% -1.0 basis point: CPI YoY +3.22% -91.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 60.1%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 61.4%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +471 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -2 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -.5% 2) Gold & Silver -.3% 3) Utilities unch.

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MRCY, CWST, NPWR, BEPC and SMCI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MANU 2) KGC 3) TLRY 4) ORCL 5) BMBL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LAZR 2) LPSN 3) TDS 4) MEI 5) DPZ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Alt Energy +3.8% 2) Oil Service +3.0% 3) Regional Banks +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AI, PLAY, EDIT, GME, SYM, VERA, BYND, ASAN, CVNA, HCP, RIVN, UPST, FYBR, SGH, COHR, U, NVCR, ARVN, PLUG, PETQ, LSCC, BE, BC, NCLH, FLNC, AN, REPL, TERN, MP, SDGR, CRDO, MRNS, CUK, DG and CCL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BNTX 2) PLAY 3) ORCL 4) DHC 5) THC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MPAA 2) LUMN 3) AI 4) BIG 5) AKYA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (LEN)/2.32
  

Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

• The PPI Final Demand MoM for May is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• The PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• The PPI Final Demand YoY for  May is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +2.3% gain in April.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,112,000 barrels versus a -452,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,019,000 barrels versus a +2,745,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +2,022,170 barrels versus a +5,074,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery utilization is estimated to fall by -.02% versus a +2.7% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 5.0-5.25%.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC Press Conference/Projections, Eurozone CPI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Cantor Fitzgerald Mobility & Industrial Tech Conference and the (BLK) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +11.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.7 +1.1
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 71.8% of Issues Advancing, 25.1% Declining
• 119 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 53.2%(+5.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 +5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.1 +2.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,306.0 -.4%
• 1-Day Vix 12.6 -25.0%
  
• Vix 14.7 -2.3% 
  
• Total Put/Call .69 -20.7%
• TRIN/Arms .69 -19.8%