Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.2 -.7%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.4 -.1%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .31 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.13 +2.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 -1.0%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 136.9 -1.0%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 53.1 +.2%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.0 +3.6
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.5 +1.8
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 75.4 +2.5
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.4 +.4
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +53.2% +.7 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 397.78 +.54: Growth Rate +21.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.5 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +131.5% -1.8 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 971.40 +.89: Growth Rate +44.7% -42.4 percentage points, P/E 19.5 +.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.25 +2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 42.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.91 +.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 71.2 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.0 unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.7% -.1 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.76% -2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 50.2% (-5.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 42.9%(+5.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -3 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +17 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long
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