Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• President Donald Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week, even after rejecting the latest Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing a phone interview with the president. 
• President Donald Trump said that some of the men arrested Sunday on terrorism charges by the UK near an air base used by the US military were under surveillance and aimed to inflict major damage. 
• Donald Trump and Xi Jinping discuss Taiwan arms sales every time they get together but the US stance on the self-ruled island remains unchanged following Xi’s visit to Washington last week, the US president’s top envoy to Beijing said. 
• Global anxiety over AI risks has intensified following fresh disclosures about a wide range of breaches by advanced AI models, setting the stage for a high-stakes meeting between Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and President Trump.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Federal Reserve policymakers should keep an “open mind” on interest rates, arguing that productivity gains from artificial intelligence and deregulation will help keep US inflation in check. 
• The bond market is on the brink of signaling that investors expect a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes will start shifting the narrative from worries over sticky inflation toward the risk that the US economy stalls out. 
• With AI advancing at unprecedented speed at companies around the world, many CFOs are realizing that their old ways of budgeting no longer work. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day: Morning Briefing Asia.    

• @Zerohedge  

• *TRUMP TO MAKE AN ANNOUNCEMENT 2PM ET MONDAY: WHITE HOUSE.
• INNIO says grid connection times have stretched from ~2 years historically to 7+ years today, which is why hyperscalers are now signing 15-year contracts for BTM power.
• TikTok To Pay Alabama At Least $100 Million, Add Teen Limits Before First State Trial.
• Beyond The SPR: Stifel Spots Another Depleted Strategic Stockpile In Urgent Need Of Rebuilding.
• Bond Market On The Brink Of Sounding Alarm On US Economy.
• Failing Lesbian Bar Faces Angry Leftist Mob After Finally Ending Mask Mandate.
• Homan Says 157,000 Missing Unaccompanied Immigrant Children Located.
• *TRUMP: DIESEL EXPORT BAN MAY CAUSE A LITTLE CAR GASOLINE RISE.
• *TRUMP ON DIESEL EXPORT BAN: THINKING OF IT VERY SERIOUSLY. *TRUMP ON MEETING WITH AMODEI: WILL SAY LET'S GO, LET'S WIN.
• "Looking To Do Big Damage": Trump Says Suspected UK Airbase Plotters Had Been Under Surveillance.
• Almost Half Of Americans Now Hold Positive Views Of Socialism.
• Iran 'Fully Prepared' To Resume War, We Don't Trust Trump: Iran FM.        
• Morgan Stanley: Investors Are Raising Expectations For Future Growth Even Faster Than Rates Are Rising.
• Xi Will Return And Put His Foot On The Pedal To Develop Better Chips, Better Models, And The Energy To Drive That Compute.
• The DOE Demands Faster Uranium Enrichment Buildout. Who's Answering The Call? 
• The Easy Money Fairy Tale Is About To End...Violently.
• FDA Commissioner Nominee Says Every Vaccine On US Market Is Safe, Effective.
• Consumer Credit Stress: What The Data Really Shows.
• "Coming Monday": Trump To Roll Back Costly 'Green' Rules To Drive Down Car Prices.
• Mamdani: Socialism "Will Absolutely Translate" Nationwide.
• US Stealth Bomber Base In UK On "Delta" Alert As Counter-Terror Police Make Arrests, Deploy Bomb Squad Search Of Vans.
• The Socialist Indoctrination Machine: Schools Are Teaching Young People To Embrace Big Government, Hate Capitalism.
• California Has Highest Personal Income Tax Rate, 8 States Have None....
• Hartnett Unveils The Two Numbers That Trigger A Risk-Off Deleveraging Cascade.        
• Goldman Says 'Don't Wait For The Midterms': Stagflation's Priced, Goldilocks Is Coming.
• Prepping For A Cashless Control Grid How Digital Currency Becomes Digital Control.
• Cuba In Crosshairs: US Army Reportedly Checks Troop Availability As Trump Says Communist Regime "Will Fail".      

• @CNBC 

• Stock futures slip after winning week on Wall Street: Live updates.
• Anthropic CEO Amodei set to meet with Trump after missing state dinner.
• China weighs allowing ByteDance, Alibaba to buy new Nvidia chips, The Information reports.
• Meta's Muse agent is attacking one of the economy's most profitable weak spots.
• Iran's foreign minister keeps indirect talks with the U.S. open; Iranian navy claims capture of underwater drone.      

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 34.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%.
• Crude Oil 93.42/bbl. +1.1%
• Gold 4,252.60 USD/t oz. -1.6% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.09 -.23%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.80 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 138.6 +1.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 5.20% +4.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.18% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.7 +.8%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%.
• S&P 500 futures -.26%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.32%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the week.