Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Oil Decline, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.1 +10.7% (new series)
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.0 +.8% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .35 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.10 -4.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.8 +7.6% (new series)
• Emerging Market CDS Index 143.9 +9.6% (new series)
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.5 +8.2% (new series)
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.2
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.2 -2.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.2 -3.5

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.8 -2.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.2 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +19.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 402.04 +.54:  Growth Rate +22.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.3 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.28% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 985.45 +2.05: Growth Rate +46.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.5 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.27 +5.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 20.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.3 +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 73.9 euros/megawatt-hour -7.1%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.4 -.5 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.96% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -8.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 47.1% (+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 44.4%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,500 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +69 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +26 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +250 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long