Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Global Sovereign Debt Angst, Mideast War-Induced Inflation Fears, Fed Rate-Hike Concerns, Biotech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.3 +.6%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.9 -1.1% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .37 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .00 +4.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.6 +2.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 142.7 +.9%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 53.0 -1.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.3 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.0 unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.1 -2.4
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.6 -2.7
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.8 -1.8
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +24.9% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 401.05 +.38:  Growth Rate +22.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.9 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.27% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 979.87 +.71: Growth Rate +45.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.9 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.23 -11.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 32.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.8 +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 80.3 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.9 +.3 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.4% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.0% +1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.50 +5.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 53.1% (+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 50.3%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -70 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -6 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -6 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/energy sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% net long

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