Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.9 -.4%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.9 +.1%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .35 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.14 -4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.9 +.3%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 143.2 -.5%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 56.2 -3.8%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 +.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.0 -.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.2 -3.0
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 62.6 -1.2
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.8 +.6
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 500 reporting) +19.0% -.8 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 402.61 +.57: Growth Rate +22.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.3 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,046.83 +61.38: Growth Rate +55.9% +9.1 percentage points, P/E 18.5 -1.0
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.26 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 21.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 182.3 +.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 71.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.0%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.4% unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.1% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 47.4% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 43.9%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2,000 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +63 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +25 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% net long
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