Thursday, September 17, 2026

Stocks Higher into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 -2.5%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.5 +2.7% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .37 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.01 -1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.1 -2.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 139.2 -1.9%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 53.7 -1.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.8 +1.0
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.2 +3.3
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 66.5 -.6
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.3 +.7
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +19.8% -5.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 401.50 +.22:  Growth Rate +22.4% unch., P/E 19.0 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.27% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 983.40 +2.40: Growth Rate +46.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.22 +2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 26.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.1 +1.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 78.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.9 -1.1 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.1% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.93% -9.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 48.5% (-1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 42.6%(unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

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