Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Surging Long-Term Rates, Mideast War-Induced Inflation Fears, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Alt Energy/Gambling Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.7 +.9% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.5 -.6% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .39 +3.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 +5.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.2 +3.0% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 149.8 +1.5% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.9 +2.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 +.3
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 +1.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.6 +2.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 84.2 +2.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.2 +.5
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +16.2% -.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 403.15 +.25:  Growth Rate +22.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.0 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,048.63 +1.38: Growth Rate +56.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.3 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.27 -3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 26.25 basis points (2s/10s) +4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.9 +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 74.7 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 7.6% -.9 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.18% +7.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +6.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 55.7% (+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 46.6%(unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +23 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +1 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +281 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/energy sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long