Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Falling Oil, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.2 -1.9%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.7 -.3% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .37 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .00 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.2 -1.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 140.8 -1.4%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 54.6 +3.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 -.4
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.8 +.8
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.9 +6.8
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.1 -.5
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.6 +5.1
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +24.9% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 401.28 +.23:  Growth Rate +22.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.9 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.27% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 981.0 +1.13: Growth Rate +46.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.9 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.20 -3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 33.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.0 +.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 77.5 euros/megawatt-hour -3.2%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.3 +.4 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.1% +.7 percentage point
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.95% -5.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 56.5% (+3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 50.3%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +520 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -3 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Modestly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% net long

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