Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• Supreme Court Block President Trump's Mail-In Ballot Order.       
• Indian Refineries Run At Up To 108% Capacity On Soaring Diesel Demand.
• "I'd Be Okay With That": Trump Says He's Open To Chinese Automakers Building Cars In US.
• John Brennan Subpoenaed As Part Of DOJ Investigation.
• US Data Centers To Burn More Natural Gas Than Most Nations.
• The Oil Tail Is Re-Fattening Beyond Hormuz And Ahead Of The Fed.
• Just a couple months out of beta, Polymarket is already at 43.8% of Kalshi’s football volume despite being live since just this summer. That’s including all the brokerage flow routed to Kalshi through Robinhood, Coinbase, PrizePicks, etc..
• Paramount Threatens California Exit That Could Cost State Billions.
• Grok, was this written by an AI chatbot?
• Court Rejects DOE Order To Delay Michigan Coal Plant Retirement.
• State Seizes Girl After Catholic Parents Refuse To Call Her A Boy.
• Lindsay Clancy Juror Admits To Feminist Motives Behind Trial.
• and another post.
• Supertanker Explodes After Hitting Mine, IRGC Says, & Asserts 'Strait Of Hormuz Is Closed'.
• Crypto Clarity Booms, AI Dooms, Banks Gloom, Oil Zooms, As Fed Looms.                        

• @CNBC  

• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz said Monday that slowing the development of increasingly powerful artificial intelligence models won’t eliminate their security risks. “The genie’s out of the bottle,” Kurtz said on CNBC’s “Mad Money.” “There’s plenty of models that are already out there, both frontier as well as open-weight models, that can already be dangerous.”
• "Mitch McConnell" returns to Senate after three-month health absence.
• Stock futures are little changed as traders eye rising oil prices and rates: Live updates.
• Costco hikes motor oil prices and puts limits on how much members can buy.
• Trump phones Nvidia’s Huang at All-In Summit, calls data center opposition a ‘hoax’.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.25 +.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 34.75 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%. 
• Crude Oil 102.84/bbl. +1.4%. 
• Gold 4,348.4 USD/t oz. -.08%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.20 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.09 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 133.1 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 5.0% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.11% +3.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%. 
• S&P 500 futures unch.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by material and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.