Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.0 +.4%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.4 -1.5%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .30 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.15 -2.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.8 +.4%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 136.5 -.3%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 52.2 -.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.7 -3.3
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.0 +.1
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 79.3 -.9
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.2 -1.4
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +53.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 399.56 +1.78: Growth Rate +21.7% +.5 percentage point, P/E 19.3 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +131.6% +.1 percentage point
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 974.60 +3.20: Growth Rate +45.1% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.1 -.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.24 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 40.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 184.1 +1.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 77.3 euros/megawatt-hour +5.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 11.3 -.7 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.80% +1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +7.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 54.9% (+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 41.0%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -45 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -58 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +13 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating -66 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/energy sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% net long
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