Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.75 +.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.8 +.7%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .46 +8.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .00 +5.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.4 +1.9%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 156.6 +.4%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 60.6 +.1%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.3 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.5 +2.6
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.3 -7.0
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 76.1 -3.5
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.0 -.4
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 500 reporting) +14.3% -1.6 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.33 +.36: Growth Rate +23.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.9 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,054.36 +2.26: Growth Rate +57.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 18.1 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.07 -15.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 36.75 basis points (2s/10s) +6.5 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.6 -.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 69.8 euros/megawatt-hour -5.0%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 8.0% unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.0% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.26% +2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.53 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 58.3% (+12.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 46.2%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -160 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -96 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +18 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +198 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% net long
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