Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.7 +.6%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.5 -.1%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .37 +2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.04 unch.
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.6 +2.4%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 141.2 +1.3%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 53.6 -.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.3 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.0 -2.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.5 -.5
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 70.3 -4.2
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.6 -2.8
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +53.0% -.2 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 400.67 +.04: Growth Rate +22.1% unch., P/E 19.1 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.27% -3.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +131.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 979.16 +2.07: Growth Rate +45.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.0 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.34 +17.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 32.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.5 -1.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 81.3 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.6 -.1 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.4% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.96% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 53.0% (+2.0 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 49.4%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -7 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -17 open in China
- KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -14 open in South Korea
- DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% net long
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