Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (LEVI)/.03
  

Economic Releases  

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts report for June.

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for June is estimated to fall to 225K versus 278K in May.
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for May is estimated at -$69.0B versus -$74.6B in April.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 245K versus 239K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1740K versus 1742K prior.

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for May is estimated to fall to 9900K versus 10103K in April.
• ISM Services Index for June is estimated to rise to 51.3 versus 50.3 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone retail sales reports, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -14.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.9 +1.0
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 34.5% of Issues Advancing, 62.6% Declining
• 41 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
• 51.2%(-3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.0 -5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.4 +.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,448.4 +.57%
• 1-Day Vix 9.4 -5.4%
  
• Vix 14.1 +3.1% 
  
• Total Put/Call .82 -33.3%
• TRIN/Arms .79 +3.95%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Xi’s Metal Curbs Risk Backfiring as G-7 Seeks China Alternative.
• China’s Chip-Metals Producers Surge on Export Restrictions.
• Hong Kong’s Reopening Brings Scant Gains for Financial Hub.
• Asian Stocks Poised to Decline; Currencies Steady: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Rallies After Saudi Arabia and Russia Announce Supply Curbs.
• Biden Administration Ordered to Limit Social Media Contacts.
• Suspicious Powder Found at White House While Biden Was Away Was Cocaine, AP Says.
• Mackenzie Equity Chief Says It’s Time to Buy Bonds After Tech-Fueled Rally. 
• US Stock Positioning Shows Pullback Risk, Citi’s Montagu Says.

Zero Hedge:

• Ukraine 'Preparing For Nuclear Explosion' As Russia Reduces Zaporizhzhia Plant Presence
• Censorship Wounds Worse Than Words.
• Secret Service Investigating How Cocaine Got In The White House
• Watch: Woke Demonstrators Protest Supreme Court Rulings With Bizarre Ritual.
• Bidenomics: Big Government, Industrial Policy And Centralized Control.
• Judge Blocks "Egregious" Biden Officials, Academic Watchdogs From Manipulating Social Media Narratives.
• Watchdog Group: Biden Administration Pushing To Make A.I. Inherently Left-Wing.
• Independence Day News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Bidenomics Means The Most Expensive Independence Day Cookout Ever.
• It's like déjà vu all over again.
• The Criminalization Of Dissent (Revisited).
• UK COVID Inquiry Reveals Just How Vast International Communist Conspiracy May Be
• Goldman: Six Months Into The New Year, And It Has Not Delivered What Markets Expected.
• Watch: RFK Jr Pushes Back When Accused Of Being A Candidate Who "Traffics Routinely In Conspiracies".
• Louisiana Gov. Vetoes Bill Meant To Shield Children From Transgender Procedures.
• Rangebound trade on US Independence Day, RBA kept rates on hold - Newsquawk Europe Market Open.
• As "Suburb Plan" Fails, France's Social Divide Widens.
• Philly Mass Shooting Suspect Identified As 40 Year Old Black Lives Matter Supporter.
• US Military Can’t Afford To Fool Around With Feel Good Green Initiatives.
• China Hits Back At Biden With Curbs On Exports Of High-Tech Metals Before Yellen Visit.
• Civil Rights Groups Challenge Harvard Legacy Admissions Said To Favor Whites.
• The Numbers Don't Lie: Corporations Are Realising Going Woke Kills Business.
• Two Charts For Cash-Strapped Consumers Preparing For Backyard Barbecues.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Facebook Faces Fresh Threat to Sending Personalized Ads in EU.
• U.S. Looks to Curb China’s Access to Cloud Computing.
• Meet the CEOs Who Pull In More Than $100 Million a Year.
• The Richcession Keeps Rolling.
• Remote Work Sticks for All Kinds of Jobs.
• The U.S. Funds Shadow Police Units All Over the World.
• The French Riots and the Broader European Underclass. A culture of dependency and macho criminality is also thriving elsewhere in Western Europe.
• Here’s When We Hit Our Physical and Mental Peaks.
• Higher-for-Longer Rates Are a Debt Threat. Investors Don’t Want to Hear It Yet.
• Japan Discharge of Fukushima Radioactive Water Into Pacific Gets Green Light.

CNBC.com:

• Airlines struggled ahead of July Fourth weekend. Their stocks didn’t
• The 2023 movie box office will need a strong second half after an inconsistent first six months
• Canadian West Coast ports negotiation reaches impasse as port owners say ‘course change’ required.
• China’s Xi says countries share responsibility to promote growth, opposes decoupling.

MarketWatch:

• Yahoo CEO says the company plans a return to the public markets
• Apple scaling back targets on Vision Pro headsets: report
• Spain says masks in hospitals and pharmacies are no longer needed as government declares COVID health crisis over

Newsmax:

• Dick Morris: Biden Delay on JFK Docs ‘Outrageous’.
• Kari Lake: 'You Don't Solve Racism by Adding More Racism'.

Fox News:

• Judge unleashes on Biden for potentially biggest 'attack' on freedom in United States history.
• Largest teachers union wants kids to read book describing oral sex and masturbation.
• Disney dealt another major blow after culture backlash: 'A losing trade'.
• US housing market defying crash expectations as prices soar.
• Armed worker stopped likely mass shooter in his tracks but got little attention, expert says.

 TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Secret Service CONFIRMS Gateway Pundit’s Report of Cocaine Being Found On White House Grounds.
• Zelensky Admits He Has Good Relationship with CIA and Intel Talks with Them Often – Suggests War Will Continue Until Ukraine Retake Crimea (VIDEO).
• EXCLUSIVE: Replacing July 4 Firework Displays with Drone Shows is “Sacrilege” — Chairman of Colliers International Brandon Fugal Sounds Off in Defense of American Tradition.
• Joe Biden Ignores Reporters After Cocaine Found in White House (VIDEO).
• SMASH AND GRAB: Thieves Crash Car into California Jewelry Store in Broad Daylight, Viciously Assault Owner, and Dash off with HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of Dollars Worth of Merchandise (VIDEO).
• Update: Trump-Appointed Judge Accuses Biden Regime of Violating First Amendment in Blistering Opinion: “Orwellian” Censorship of Conservatives – Full Memo Included.
• Left Wing Group PETA is Using Artificial Intelligence ChatGPT to Rewrite The Bible – Aims to Eliminate Animal Cruelty and Veganism to Younger Generations.
• LOOK: America’s Oldest Beer Company Deals Bud Light a “Vicious Blow” With Its Choice of Influencer – Also Sends Out Patriotic Fourth of July Tweet (PHOTOS).
• U.S. State Department Advises Americans to “Reconsider Travel” to China Over Risk of Wrongful Detention.
• Gunman Behind Philly Massacre is BLM Supporter…. and Transgender?

The Epoch Times: 

• Yellen Holds ‘Frank’ Discussion With Chinese Envoy as Beijing Curbs Metal Exports.
• Chinese Regime’s Fertility Campaign Targets Girls as Young as 15 for Childbearing.
• China’s $3 Trillion in ‘Shadow Reserves’ Threatens Global Economy: Former US Treasury Official.

Twitter: 

• @DrLoupis - Why are so many companies going woke - to go broke? (video)
• @charliebilello - The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 35 months, by far the longest in history. (table)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 966,895 Reports(+1,278 from prior week) Through June 16th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.5 -2.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 59.75 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.6 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.4 +.9%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .32 -5.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.4 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.11%.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Restricts Export of Chipmaking Metals in Clash With US.
• What Are Gallium and Germanium? Niche Metals Hit by China Curbs.
• China Banks Offer 25-Year Loans to LGFVs to Avert Credit Crunch.
• Rivian to Expand Amazon Electric Van Deliveries to EU in Germany.
• Drought Menacing Thailand Threatens Global Supply of Sugar, Rice.
• Asian Stocks Face Pressure as Equities Rally Wanes: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher After Saudi Arabia and Russia Curb Supplies.
• Musk, Zuckerberg Lead a $852 Billion Surge Among World’s Richest People.
• Bank of America Says it Started Talks With Fed After Stress Test Results.
• Bridgewater’s Greg Jensen Sees a ‘Bad’ Outlook for Bonds and Stocks.
• It’s Getting a Lot Harder to Chase the Stock Rally From Here On. 
• Chicago Pension Debt Rises to $35 Billion as Mayor Hunts for Fix.

Zero Hedge:

• The Growing Global Hunger For Meat
• The Bidens' Existential Threats To The American Rule Of Law: VDH.
• Life Cycle Emissions: EVs Vs Combustion Engine Vehicles.
• CISA Was Behind The Attempt To Control Your Thoughts, Speech, And Life.
• FAA Greenlights "Limited" Flight Operations For SpaceX-Backed Flying Car.
• El Dorado County Group Mulls Secession From California.
• Michigan Hate Speech Bill Would Make Using Wrong Pronouns A Felony With $10K Fine, Prison Time.
• Now Calls Mount For Beijing To Load Up On Debt.
• AI Companies Negotiate Landmark Deals To Train Chatbots On MSM News.
• US stocks eked slight gains in a shortened session ahead of Independence Day - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "The World Is Laughing At Us": U.S. Army Shares Story Of Suicidally Depressed Transgender Major.
• Former Anheuser-Busch Executive Asks Current CEO To Step Down: "He's Been Paralyzed".
• Positioning: "Is the glass half full or half empty?".
• You Won't Fix Racism With More Racism.
• Apple's Road To $3 Trillion.
• ESG Investing Isn't Doing Much For The Environment; Yale Study Confirms.
• Fed Economists Warn Of Looming Disaster Due To High Interest Rates.
• Bitcoin, Banks, & Bullion Bid To Start H2; Bonds & Stocks Chop.

Wall Street Journal:

• China Restricts Exports of Two Minerals Used in High-End Chips
• Tesla Gears Up for Battle With Gasoline Cars.
• Harvard’s Legacy Admissions Challenged After Affirmative Action Ruling.
• Zuckerberg Looks to Deliver Hit to Musk With Upcoming Twitter Clone Named Threads.
• Joe Biden’s $400 Billion Man.
• Migrant Workers Flee Florida as Immigration Law Takes Effect.
• Soros Foundation to Cut Staff by 40%.
• French Riots Test Macron’s Loyalty to Police.
• Challenge to Zuckerberg’s Quest to Re-Enter China: His Own Words.

CNBC:

• Tesla shares rise nearly 7% after delivery and production numbers beat expectations
• United CEO says flight cuts needed as thunderstorms roil July Fourth holiday travel
• Some steps student loan borrowers should take now, after Supreme Court strikes down debt cancellation

MarketWatch.com:

• Opinion: Driverless cars are driving San Francisco crazy — ‘They are not ready for prime time’.

NewsMax:

• Rep. Tim Burchett: 'Classic Misdirection' in Hunter Biden Case.

Fox News:

• Bud Light hit over 'desperate' new ad featuring NFL star as controversy rages: 'Going for the death blow'.
• Small business owners sound alarm on Biden's new environmental regulations.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• After 6 Days of Rioting and 700 Injured Cops, Patriots Take to the Streets in France: “Blue, White, Red: France Belongs to the French!”
• Jim Caviezel Reveals What Disney Told Him to Do with References to God in ‘Count of Monte Cristo’
• UFC Fighter Anthony Smith Reveals He Developed Blood Clot Following mRNA COVID Vaccine, Claims His Mother Died After Pfizer Booster Shot (VIDEO).
• Enes Kanter Freedom Destroys Anti-American WNBA Player’s Twitter Rant ‘You Don’t Wanna See the Other Side’.
• In the Held V. Montana ‘Climate Kids’ Trial, Montana State Attorneys Surrendered to Junk Science.
• Outgoing CDC Director Rochelle Walensky Delivers Final Message to Americans: ‘Be on Guard Against Misinformation and the Politicization of Science’.
• WNBA Player Whose 2020 Salary Was Paid By Converse So She Could Be A Social Justice Activist, Tweets: America “is trash in so many ways” Days Before Independence Day—America Responds.
• Get Woke Go Broke: Bud Light Glass Bottling Contractor Forced to Shut Down Plants Due to Tanking Sales, Leaving 600 Employees Jobless.
• France Has Fallen: Right-wing Politician Marine Le Pen Addresses the French Nation as the Country Grapples in Anarchy (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Pentagon to Cut Off Filmmakers Who Kowtow to China.
• US Government Issues ‘Level 3’ Warning Over China Travel Due to Risk of Wrongful Detention,.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 966,895 Reports(+1,278 from prior week) Through June 16th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Stocks Finish Slightly Higher on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.5 -.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .52%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.3 +1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.2 +.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.8 -.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 +44.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .75 -12.8%

• NYSE Arms .63 -28.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.6 -.32%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.92 -.28%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 385.0 -1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.5 -.94% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 273.3 -2.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 170.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.9 -2.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.8 +.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.0 -.61%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 26.25 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 713.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 78.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.59 +.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.28% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.9 euros/megawatt-hour  -8.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.0 +3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -146.5 +1.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.0 -4.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) -20.6% n/a
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.31 n/a:  Growth Rate +3.5% n/a, P/E 19.2 n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 213.93 unch.: Growth Rate +41.7% n/a, P/E 36.3 n/a
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.11 -5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -108.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.94% -23.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.35% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 71.6%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 56.3%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -68 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -186 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +143 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Wednesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for May is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.4% gain in April.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, weekly US retail sales reports and the China Services PMI report could also impact global trading on Wednesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST