Stocks Finish Slightly Higher on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.5 -.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .52%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.3 +1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.2 +.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.8 -.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 +44.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .75 -12.8%

• NYSE Arms .63 -28.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.6 -.32%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.92 -.28%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 385.0 -1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.5 -.94% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 273.3 -2.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 170.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.9 -2.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.8 +.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.0 -.61%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 26.25 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 713.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 78.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.59 +.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.28% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.9 euros/megawatt-hour  -8.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.0 +3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -146.5 +1.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.0 -4.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) -20.6% n/a
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.31 n/a:  Growth Rate +3.5% n/a, P/E 19.2 n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 213.93 unch.: Growth Rate +41.7% n/a, P/E 36.3 n/a
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.11 -5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -108.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.94% -23.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.35% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 71.6%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 56.3%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -68 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -186 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +143 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long