Stocks Lower into Close on Cooling FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Rising Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Worries, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.1 +2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .80%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.5 +1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 164.7 -.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 +.12%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.7 +5.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 -24.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .82 unch.

• NYSE Arms .88 -4.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.22 +.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 342.08 +.36%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 376.0 -12.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.23 +.23% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 264.3 +1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 162.0 basis points -2.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.5 +.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 204.7 +.49%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.7 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 19.0 basis points +.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 165.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 721.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 76.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.5 -.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.78%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.0 euros/megawatt-hour  +3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.5 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -119.7 -2.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.9 -.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(75 of 500 reporting) +5.6% -3.4 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.58 -.01:  Growth Rate +3.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.7 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.16% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +14.5% n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 217.96 +.22: Growth Rate +41.7% -1.4 percentage point, P/E 36.5 -1.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index n/a
  
• US Yield Curve -98.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.42% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.19% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +9.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 83.9%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 68.3%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -180 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -59 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long