Stocks Higher into Afternoon on More Dovish Fed Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Dollar Weakness, Metals & Mining/Regional Bank Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -7.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .56%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.8 -.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 162.3 -.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.2 -9.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -29.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .75 +2.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.47 +101.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.8 -3.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 351.9 -1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 375.0 +12.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.5 -4.5% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 266.73 -4.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 basis points -9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.7 -2.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 207.07 -2.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.89 +.35%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 -10.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 716.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.71 +.53%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.6 euros/megawatt-hour  -8.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.7 -4.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -134.5 +1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.9 +3.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) -20.6% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.55 +.05:  Growth Rate +3.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 +.1 point
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 215.97 +.39: Growth Rate +41.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 35.7 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.15 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -88.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.29% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.19% -16.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.35% +13.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 78.8%(+6.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 64.6%(+10.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +166 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +85 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long