Stocks Rising into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Optimism, Earnings Outlooks, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Commodity/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.9 +.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .37%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.1 +3.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 164.4 -.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 -.23%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.9 -.24% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.20 +62.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.77 -.23%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 327.85 -.90%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 369.0 -1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.9 +.79% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 264.02 -.76%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.1 -2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 199.75 -.87%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.5 +.3%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 21.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 731.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 75.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.4 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.6 euros/megawatt-hour  +6.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 70.3 +5.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -138.9 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.5 +2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(120 of 500 reporting) +2.5% +2.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.49 +.07:  Growth Rate +3.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.08% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +3.4% -11.1 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 219.87 +.24: Growth Rate +42.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 35.7 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .51 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.07 -9.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -99.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.42% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.19% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 79.2%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 59.6%(-4.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +23 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +101 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/medical/utility/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long