Stocks Rising into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Optimism, Earnings Outlooks, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Commodity/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.9 +.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .37%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.1 +3.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 164.4 -.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 -.23%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.9 -.24% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.20 +62.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.77 -.23%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 327.85 -.90%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 369.0 -1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.9 +.79% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 264.02 -.76%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.1 -2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 199.75 -.87%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.5 +.3%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 21.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 731.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 75.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.4 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.6 euros/megawatt-hour  +6.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 70.3 +5.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -138.9 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.5 +2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(120 of 500 reporting) +2.5% +2.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.49 +.07:  Growth Rate +3.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.08% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +3.4% -11.1 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 219.87 +.24: Growth Rate +42.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 35.7 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .51 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.07 -9.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -99.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.42% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.19% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 79.2%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 59.6%(-4.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +23 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +101 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/medical/utility/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.7% 2) Telecom -1.0% 3) REITs -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SITC, MODN, GM, WHR, DOV, LUV, AUB, NWE, NXGN, HXL, LW, SAGE, ST, ALK, STX, IRBT, LTH, IRDM, SPOT, TBI and TARS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RTX 2) SPOT 3) DKS 4) HZNP 5) KVUE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HGEN 2) IRDM 3) YELL 4) AMC 5) ZVIA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Steel +3.0% 2) Computer Hardware +2.1% 3) Semis +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• APLD, UPST, PKG, MSCI, CLF, PJT, AEHR, SCCO, XRX, DDOG, CC, ZWS, AA, BKU, GE, PHM, FFIV, ELF, MMM, WRK, SHW, IP, FCX, SILK, IP, IONQ, AFRM, MEDP, LTHM, INSW, HUN, ADM, CATY, POOL, LEGN, TRU, RDFN and INSW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RTX 2) MMM 3) ALK 4) LOGI 5) VALE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KNSA 2) UPST 3) FFIV 4) DDOG 5) NXPI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/4.24
• (T)/.60
• (BA)/-.89
• (CME)/2.20
• (KO)/.72
• (FI)/1.79
• (GD)/2.56
• (GPI)/11.08
• (HES)/.52
• (HLT)/1.58
• (MNRO)/.38
• (ODFL)/2.63
• (OTIS)/.86
• (OC)/3.25
• (PAG)/4.17
• (DGX)/2.27
• (R)/2.89
• (TDY)/4.63
• (TMO)/5.43
• (UNP)/2.74
  

After the Close: 

• (AEM)/.55
• (ALGN)/2.04
• (CMG)/12.31
• (CLS)/.47
• (EBAY)/.99
• (EW)/.65
• (FLEX)/.51
• (LHX)/2.94
• (LRCX)/5.07
• (LSTR)/1.81
• (META)/2.91
• (MYRG)/1.28
• (ORLY)/10.08
• (PTEN)/.44
• (PPC)/.33
• (RJF)/2.15
• (STX)/-.27
• (NOW)/2.05
• (TER)/.66
• (URI)/9.01
• (VMI)/4.08
• (WH)/.91
  

Economic Releases  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for June is estimated to fall to 725K versus 763K in May.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,122,830 barrels versus a -708,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,590,830 barrels versus a -1,066,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -821,500 barrels versus a +13,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall to rise +.07% versus a +.6% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds Rates +25.0 basis points to 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed press conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Australia CPI report and the 7Y T-Note auction could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -1.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 +.8
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 52.0% of Issues Advancing, 44.4% Declining
• 84 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 60.5%(+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 73.0 +2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.7 +2.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,277.3 +.6%
• 1-Day Vix 11.4 +22.5%
  
• Vix 14.0 +.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -1.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.16 +56.8%
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Global Space Spending Is Projected to Grow 41% Over the Next Five Years.
• South Korea Economic Growth Speeds Up in Sign of Resilience.
• BOJ Set to Stick With Easing as Markets See Clock Ticking on YCC.
• UK Pledges Crackdown on Harmful Ads on Google, Other Web Platforms.
• Asia Shares Cautious After China Signals Support: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Near Three-Month High as China Moves to Bolster Growth.
• ‘We Were Wrong’: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Offers Stocks Mea Culpa.
• Citadel Securities Trading Revenue Slides 35% on Muted Market.
• JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sticks to Stock Selloff Call Even as Market Defies Gloom.
• Solar Manufacturing in the US Is Facing a Bleak Future, Analysts Warn.
• FDIC Warns Banks After Errors in Reporting Uninsured Deposits.
• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s Worldcoin Token Soars on First Day of Trading.
• Cerberus, Highgate Miss Payments on $415 Million Hotel Mortgage. 
• Citi Says New Capital Rules Could Hinder Derivatives, Prime Brokerage Services.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Zero Hedge:

• "Another Pay-To-Play?" Hunter Art Buyer Revealed As "Friend" Who Received Favor From Biden White House.
• CMT 'Murders Own Brand' After Pulling Jason Aldean Video.
• How Washington Ruined America’s Future.
• Shrinkflation And Skimpflation Are Eating Our Lunch.
• Biden's Gun Control Backfires After Fifth Circuit Ruling: Ghost Guns Legal Once More.
• "Can You Ring Your Dad?" Joe Biden Spoke Directly To Hunter's Business Partners Dozens Of Times.
• Luongo: The DNC Soap Opera Gets A New Villain – RFK Jr.
• Warring Sides Vie For 'Alternative' Grain Export Plans As Russia Escalates With Strikes On Danube Port.
• Rep. Jordan Says House Could Move To Impeach Merrick Garland At A "Pretty Quick Pace".
• 'Putler' Strikes Again: Signs Law Banning "Gender Reassignment" In Russia.
• FedEx Pilots Reject New Labor Deal That Would Raise Pay By 30%.
• A 'Traumatic Fight For Survival': The Demise of San Francisco Should Concern All Americans.
• China Stocks Surge After Politburo Meeting More Dovish Than Expected.
• Crude awakening.
• "Combustible Mixture Of Ignorance & Power" - Carl Sagan Warned 'Authoritarian Science' Would "Blow Up In Our Faces".
• Watch: Air Force Head Declares Support For "Demi-Genders"
• Democrats Are Outraged Over Texas Efforts To Secure The Southern Border
• Behold, The Rise Of Europe's Anti-Greens.
• Noose Tightens On Consumer Credit, Auto Loan Rejections Hit Record High.
• No Strike At Yellow After Central States Grants 30 Day Extension.
• Stocks rise and Treasuries flatten after mixed PMI data - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Banks Bid, Bonds & Bitcoin Battered As Stagflation Scare Soars.

Wall Street Journal:

• Here Come the Family EVs.
• FDIC Scolds Banks for Manipulating Deposit Data.
• Why the Fed Isn’t Ready to Declare Victory on Inflation.
• Banks Are Going on a Diet.
• Israeli Parliament Passes Part of Netanyahu’s Judicial Overhaul.
• Cleaning Up ChatGPT Takes Heavy Toll on Human Workers.
• Colorblindness Is Worth a Try. Starting in 1883, the high court equivocated on the meaning of the Equal Protection Clause.
• As Cleanup of Ohio Train Derailment Slogs Along, Residents Still Feel Unsafe.
• IPO Market Awakens From Long Slumber.

CNBC.com:

• FedEx pilots reject tentative deal, supervised talks likely.
• Apple reportedly considers raising the price of its new iPhone Pros.
• Read Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino’s message to staff about the ‘X’ rebrand.
• Spotify increases prices for its premium subscription plans.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: NXP Semiconductors, Whirlpool and more.
• IRS halts most unannounced visits to taxpayers, citing safety concerns.

MarketWatch: 

• The $1 trillion ‘wall of worry’ for commercial real estate that spirals through 2027.
• Here are 4 signs that markets are looking frothy in 2023.
• Nvidia is ‘dominating’ and could unlock $300 billion in AI revenue by 2027, analyst says.
• ‘No chance we’re having a soft landing’: Stock-market strategist David Rosenberg gives Powell’s Fed no credit — and no mercy.
• Tupperware’s stock sees largest daily gain on record amid meme-like surge
• The last UPS strike ‘shut America down.’ Here’s how drivers and warehouse workers are preparing this time.
• Stock-market ‘meltup’ will continue as long as there’s no sign of recession, says Steve Eisman of ‘Big Short’ fame
• Overconcentration in U.S. stock market sees fastest rise in 60 years, JPMorgan warns

Newsmax:

• Trump Hits Senate GOP as Less Critical of Biden Than House.
• Kerik to Newsmax: No One Holding FBI, DOJ Accountable.

Fox News:

• Department of Justice offers key figure to testify before the House in Hunter Biden investigation
• Ex-WH adviser raises alarm bells about legal weed: We're making a 'huge mistake'

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Karine Jean-Pierre Confirms Biden Regime Seeking to Restrict Water Heaters, Gas Stoves, Dishwashers and Other Appliances by 2029 (VIDEO).
• BREAKING UPDATE: 43-Year-Old Black Man Drowns Off Obama’s Martha Vineyard Home – Obama’s Personal Chef Tafari Campbell Identified as Victim
• HUGE! Devon Archer to Testify Hunter Biden Put Then-VP Dad Joe on the Phone with Overseas Business Partners at Least 2 Dozen Times.
• Grammy-Winning Singer Tori Kelly Rushed to Hospital After Passing Out – Doctor Finds Severe Blood Clots.
• Karine Jean-Pierre Changes Her Tune When Asked If Joe Biden Still Stands Behind Claims He Never Spoke to Hunter’s Overseas Business Associates (VIDEO).
• Karine Jean-Pierre: We Actually Saw the President’s Plan Working” on Border… 7 Million Illegals Have Entered US in Last 3 Years Under Joe Biden!
• Corrupt Fulton County District Attorney Uses President Trump’s Grand Jury to Raise Funds for Her Campaign, Gain Twitter Followers.
• Kash Patel Is Right – Congress Must Impeach Wray and Garland This Week – Or Recess Kicks In Until September.
• Hungarian Rock Star Justice Minister Judith Varga in Texas: “Weak America” Leads to War – Hungary Doesn’t Want US Wokeness.
• Journalist Fighting to Obtain Nashville Shooter Manifesto Receives Chilling Death Threat: ‘I’ll Go to Prison to End You’.
• Ed Dowd Drops Bombshell Data: Hematological (Blood-Related) Claims Up 522% Above Trend in 2022 (VIDEO).
• “You’re Proposing Things that Pervert Children”- California School Board KICKS OUT Radical State Official After He Tries to Bully Them for Protecting Children and Parental Rights (VIDEO).
• FDA Approves New Anthrax Vaccine.
• After Nobel Prize Scientist Declares ‘There Is No Real Climate Crisis’ – He is Abruptly Canceled for IMF Climate Talk: Claim.
• ESPN FC Commentator Shaka Hislop Collapses on Live TV During Real Madrid vs. AC Milan Friendly Match (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Trump's Trade Chief Lays Out Plan to Beat China at Its Own Game.
• China’s Failed Economic Strategies.

Twitter: 

• @JackDan110 - I’m not making this up. On Disney, the Muppet Babies show, Gonzo has come out as trans. Need I remind everyone that this show is aimed at young children? Is everyone paying attention yet?
• @FinanceLancelot - It's almost go time. (video)
• @crushthemarket - If we get rid of #oil & #coal we are all toast, as there's nothing coming close right in not only replacing these 2 huge sources of #energy, but also providing future growth. (graph) “It’s never been this bad” for Aussie home builders. (graph) Who knew having too much #debt will be a big problem, if #credit injections stop? The great #China crash is here. (graph)
• @EndWokeness - El Salvador President Bukele now has a 90% approval rating. He took one of the deadliest countries and made it the safest in Latin America. How did he do it? He jailed the criminals. (graph) Homicides are down 92% since the crime crackdown in El Salvador.
• @VigilantFox - So, why did most doctors not opt for alternative treatments instead? Following the money will give you the likely answer, as Federal funds encouraged a specific course of action. “When you go to the hospital, you get tested. They get paid more. When you get admitted for COVID, they get paid more. When they put you on remdesivir, they get paid more. When you get ventilated, they get paid more. When you die, they get paid more. This is perverse.” (video) 
• @DrLoupis - Oakland looking worse than a third world country. Have you all had enough of “Build Back Better”? (video) 
• @amlivemon - Hot cpi incoming for the fall… who could have guessed that rallying this market would launch commodities? (graph)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 970,231 Reports(+988 from prior week) Through July 7th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 -1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 61.5 -2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 114.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.4 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.5 +2.4%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.40 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.13%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.