Monday, March 25, 2024

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Quarter-End Profit-Taking, Road & Rail/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.2 +.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .71 -6.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.5 +.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.1 +.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.4 -1.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.1 +1.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 154.0 +24.0
  • Total Put/Call .96 -26.2%
  • NYSE Arms .64 -62.8%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$28.3M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.0 -.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 281.4 +.2%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 289 +1
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.5 -.7%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 189.90 -1.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.0 -.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 167.9 -.8%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 120.2 -.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.11%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 784.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.5 euros/megawatt-hour +2.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 32.5 +.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.7 +4.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.7 -.8 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(12 of 500 reporting) +40.7% -10.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 249.78 +.46:  Growth Rate +11.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.9 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.23 +.50: Growth Rate +29.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.4 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.12 -6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.0 -8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -37.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.1% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 55.4% -2.5 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 63.4%(-3.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 47.8%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -154 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +290 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/transport/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail -.6% 2) Software -.6% 3) Video Gaming -.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LULU, UAL, TRML, TTWO, NMRA, CHWY, EH, CMP and AEHR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) APA 2) AVTR 3) FDX 4) CGC 5) GME
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AEHR 2) FSR 3) VMEO 4) JOAN 5) NYCB
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLV 3) XBI 4) KRE 5) XLP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +1.4% 2) Computer Hardware +1.4% 3) Gold & Silver +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DWAC, NKTX, TH, CLSK, MSTR, CDLX, GME, MNMD, MU, PAR, CENX, FL, SHC, CEG, DXCM, DESP, YOU, ARIS, SIG, EMN, VST, CRBG, HROW, ATMU, MASI, SCS and KNTK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FTI 2) DASH 3) DISH 4) DWAC 5) FDX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DWAC 2) TH 3) GME 4) EGY 5) LCID
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) XLU 3) XLI 4) IYW 5) XLE
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MKC)/.57
  • (SNX)/2.84
After the Close: 
  • (GME)/.29
  • (PRGS)/1.14 
  • (CNXC)/2.58
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for March.
  • Durable Goods Orders for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -6.2% decline in Jan.
  • Durable Goods Ex Transports for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.4% decline in Jan.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Feb. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Jan.
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Dec.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.21% gain in Dec.
10:00 am EST
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March is estimated to rise to 107.0 versus 106.7 in Feb. 
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March is estimated at -5 versus -5 in Feb.

Upcoming Splits 

  • (ODFL) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, 5Y-T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, BofA auto summit, (UPS) analyst day, (ADBE) investor meeting and the (MRNA) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -19.2% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.8 +.4
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 50.7% of Issues Advancing, 47.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .70 -59.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$39.8M
  • 149 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
  • 61.7% (+.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 -2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.2 -.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.2 +.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,187.0 -.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 68.0 (Greed) -4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.6 -19.0%
  • Vix 13.2 +1.1%
  • Total Put/Call .95 -26.9%

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  
Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

X:
  • @elonmusk 
  • @WideAwakeMedia
  • @CitizenFreePres
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @ToscaAusten
  • @TuckerCarlson
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @WesternLensman
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @RepMattGaetz
  • @drawandstrike
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • Upset New Yorker speaks about the illegal migrant crisis: "Take care of your citizens before the 400,000 people you got from South America". "You still got native Americans who are asking for help". "And mind you, the lost their country". "But now you are worried about people from Venezuela who got hotels in Times Square?" "How dare you". (video) 
  • "15-Minute cities is something that the WEF has created called C40" "If you want food you will get a calorie controlled system sent to you by text saying 'this is what you can eat today'". "If you violate any of these things they WILL freeze your bank account". "We are going to be in an open prison". "That is the NEXT step". "We will not be able to work unless it's in our 15-minute city". Candidate for Mayor of London: (video)
  • KATE MIDDLETON IS NOT THE ONLY ONE WHO GOT TURBOCANCER POST BOOSTERS: "As an Oncologist I Am Seeing People With Stable Cancer Rapidly Relapse After a C19 Booster" Angus Dalgleish, Professor of Oncology at St. Georges Hospital Medical School London. (video)
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @ConceptualJames
  • @LibsofTiktok
  • @EmeraldRobinson
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.0 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 70.25 +3.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.01%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.1 +1.2%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 -.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.