Monday, June 03, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:

Newsmax:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

  • @libsoftiktok
  • @newstart_2024
  • @CollinRugg
  • @kylenabecker
  • @JamesMelville
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • Breakdown Of The 150+ Pages Of Internal COVID 19 Emails Released. This is CRAZY!! NIH (National Institute of Health) emails show high up members were actively telling each other NOT to email from their NIH email addresses to avoid Freedom of Information Act Requests!! (video)
  • Almost Everything You’ve Noticed Change In America Can Be Traced Back To Barack Obama. In 1992, A Real Communist Party USA Meeting Was Held In California At The University Of Berkeley. Many Of The Attendees Ended Up Working In The Barack Obama Administration A Full Communist Agenda and how they would achieve their goal would be to “Use the environmental movement to take down the free enterprise system in America.” This should be extremely eye opening for everyone. We are living through their agenda. (video)
  • @LeadingReport
  • @Bubblebathgirl
  • @BarbaraOneiLLAU
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.25 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.5 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.4 +1.3%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 -.09%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Technical Selling, Energy/Construction Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 +.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.0 euros/megawatt-hour +5.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.9 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.7 -.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.5 -3.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(490 of 500 reporting) +7.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 257.82 +.34:  Growth Rate +13.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.87% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 329.71 +.43: Growth Rate +23.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.5 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +16.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -41.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.8% -170 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.5% +3.0 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.69% -5.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 85.5%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 51.4%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -313 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -113 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BBWI)/.33
  • (DCI)/.83 
  • (FERG)/2.31
After the Close: 
  • (CRWD)/.89
  • (HPE)/.39
  • (PVH)/2.16
  • (SFIX)/-.24
  • (VRNT)/.54
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTS Job Openings for April is estimated to fall to 8350K versus 8488K in March.
  • Factory Orders for April is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.8% gain in March.
  • Factory Orders Ex Transports for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in March.
  • Final Durable Goods revisions for April.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting, Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, Cowen Future of Consumer Conference, Deutsche Bank Materials/Industrials Conference, Morgan Stanley Travel/Leisure Conference, BofA Housing Symposium, BofA Tech Conference, UBS Auto/Auto Tech Conference, Wolfe Research Small/Mid-Cap Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, (TJX) annual meeting, (PENN) annual meeting, (CSCO) investor day, (SNOW) investor day, (APP) annual meeting, (GM) annual meeting,  and the Baird Consumer/Tech/Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +7.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.6 -2.4
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 37.6% of Issues Advancing, 60.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.37 +61.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$120.2M
  • 108 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
  • 57.5% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 47.0 +3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.2 -3.6%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 233.4 -.62%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,529.4 +1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 49.0 (NEUTRAL) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 11.4 +11.3%
  • Vix 13.7 +5.9%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -8.3%

Sunday, June 02, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Zero Hedge: 

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC:  
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @greg_price11
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @JamesMelville 
  • @KanekoaTheGreat
  • @newstart_2024
  • @VigilantNews
  • @AmyMek
  • @CollinRugg
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.75 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.5 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 +.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.3 +1.3%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.4 -1.6%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.96%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.23%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, June 01, 2024

Today's Headlines

Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (WDFC).
Around X:
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @Songpinganq
  • @TuckerCarlson
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @LaraLogan
  • @thehealthb0t
  • @wideawake_media
  • @TaraBull808
  • @ChuckCallesto
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @VigilantFox 
  • @TPostMillennial
  • @newstart_2024
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com: