Monday, June 17, 2024

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +2.9% 2) Computer Hardware +2.7% 3) Gambling +2.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AAN, XPOF, MIRM, ASTS, OLLI, SMCI, VSCO, DKNG, ADSK, HUT, WHD, FLUT, DELL, BIO, GE, AVGO, SUN, QTRX, TSLA, PLTR, MU, BBY, GLW, CIM, STLD, AMKR, ORLY, ICUI, CNK, CAVA, SIX, DRI, ANET, LMND, HIMS, MSM, CMG, CLX and CRS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) LEN 2) IEF 3) TTC 4) GRND 5) SLS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MBIO 2) MIRM 3) BBY 4) AITX 5) AVGO
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLV 2) XLE 3) XLU 4) JETS 5) VGT
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CRMT)/.20
  • (PDCO)/.82
After the Close: 
  • (KBH)/1.80
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for June.
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in April.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in April.

9:15 am EST

  • Industrial Production MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in April.
  • Capacity Utilization for May is estimated to rise to 78.6% versus 78.4% in April.
  • Manufacturing Production for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.3% decline in April.

10:00 am EST

  • Business Inventories for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in March.

4:00 pm EST

  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for April.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Musalem speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q update, 20Y T-Note auction, JPMorgan Energy/Power/Renewables conference, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, (ADSK) annual meeting, (SQ) annual meeting, (WDAY) annual meeting, (CRWD) annual meeting and the (MA) general meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -21.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 +2.6
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 29.7% of Issues Advancing, 67.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .85 -37.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$161.6M
  • 38 New 52-Week Highs, 94 New Lows
  • 50.2% (-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 45.0 +3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.5 +1.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.8 +.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,085.9 +.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 41.0 (FEAR) +3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.7 -16.6%
  • Vix 12.7 +.2%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -10.9%

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @wideawake_media
  • @TheMilkBarTV
  • @JamesMelville 
  • @KanekoaTheGreat
  • @newstart_2024
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • This is a huge red flag for OpenAI. Former head of the National Security Agency, retired Gen. Paul Nakasone has joined OpenAI. Anyone using OpenAI going forward, you just need to understand that the US govt has full operating control and influence over this app. There is no other reason to add someone like that to your company.
  • @VigilantFox
  • @OvertonLive
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @P_McCulloughMD
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.75 +2.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 68.25 +3.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.2 +.7%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 -.7%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.29%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, June 15, 2024

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:   
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (SBUX), (TSM), (HXSCL) and  (SSNHZ).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @JamesMelville
  • @VigilantFox 
  • RFK JR: “Tony Fauci Knew That Remdesivir Would Kill You”. “How does it kill you?” he asked. “Kidney failure, heart failure, and all-organ collapse.” “All the doctors said ... ‘We’ve never seen a virus that attacks the kidneys.’ Because it wasn’t the virus; it was the remdesivir.”
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, June 14, 2024

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising European Debt Angst, Earnings Outlook Worries, Alt Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.6 +5.1%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .73 +5.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.2 -4.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.3 -.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.7 +2.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 9.7 +5.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 -4.0
  • Total Put/Call .99 -2.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.31 -2.2%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$359.3M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.5 +4.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 292.1 +4.7%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 288 -12
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.6 +16.2%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 187.5 +7.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 157.0 basis points +10.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.7 +3.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 171.0 +2.6%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 124.8 +1.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.86 -.06%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.25 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 6.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 -1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 145.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 724.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 +2.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.81%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.9 -5.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.4 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.2 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) +7.9% +.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 259.10 +.20:  Growth Rate +13.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.9 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 333.94 +1.82: Growth Rate +24.5% +.7 percentage point, P/E 33.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .82 -19.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -47.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.1% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 55.7% +5.5 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.56% unch.: CPI YoY +3.15% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 59.9%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 47.2%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -344 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long