Thursday, July 11, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 56.25 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.14%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.3 +2.2%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.2 +.02%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, July 04, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.75 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.25 -3.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 62.8 +4.2%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 -.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.08%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, July 03, 2024

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:   

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @JamesOKeefeIII
  • @simonateba
  • @KanekoaTheGreat
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @VigilantFox 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Stocks Close at Session Highs on Long-Term Rate Peak Speculation, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 +.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour -3.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.4 -17.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.5 +1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.8 -.9 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +23.9% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 260.96 +.07:  Growth Rate +14.3% unch., P/E 21.1 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 329.84 +.19: Growth Rate +23.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 35.7 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .68 +3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.7% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.7% -.4 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 66.5%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 52.1%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -130 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Friday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for June is estimated to fall to 190K versus 272K in May.
  • The Unemployment Rate for June is estimated at 4.0% versus 4.0% in May.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in May.

Upcoming Splits

  • (WSM) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed Monetary Policy report, US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC net speculative position reports and the Fed balance sheet report could also impact global trading on Friday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Tuesday, July 02, 2024

Wednesday Watch

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