Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 56.25 -1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.14%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.3 +2.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.2 +.02%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.75 -2.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.25 -3.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 113.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 62.8 +4.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.08%.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Investment Bankers Join the Communist Party as Morale (and Paychecks) Shrink.
• Modi’s Budget to Send India’s Soaring Stocks Higher, Survey Says.
• PwC Is Struggling in China With an Exodus of Clients and Staff.
• Aramco, Adnoc Are Considering Bids for Gas Producer Santos.
• Topix Joins Nikkei at Record High as Japan’s Stocks Extend Rally.
• Asian Stocks Climb, Yen Rallies Off Historic Lows.
• Global Markets on Alert for Biden Exit as Trump-Win Trades Mount.
• Kamala Harris Is Having a Surprise Resurgence as Biden’s Campaign Unravels.
• Biden Wins Democratic Governors’ Backing After Crisis Meeting.
• US Money-Market Fund Assets Rise to Record $6.15 Trillion.
• Fed Sought More Evidence of Cooling Inflation, June Minutes Show.

Zero Hedge:

• "No One Is Pushing Me Out" Biden Tells Staff As New NYT Poll Shows Trump Lead Widening.
• From Milk-Runs To MAD To Madness.
• Anti-Slavery California Ballot Measure Would Ban Forced Prison Labor.
• Egypt Teeters On Brink Of Economic Ruin As Public Debt Mounts, Poverty Rate Soars.
• Explosion Rocks General Dynamics' Hellfire & Javelin Missile Factory In Arkansas.
• Random Pre July 4th Observations.
• Putin & Xi Meet Again, Plot Countering US, While White House Consumed With Crisis Of Biden's Decline.
• US stocks were mostly higher as yields and the dollar softened on weak data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• From Big Cities To Small Town Main Streets, America To Celebrate July 4 In Record Style.
• The Green New Scam Is Dying.
• Cat 4 Hurricane Beryl Heads Towards Texas, Threatening Major Oil Refineries.
• How Much Are State And Local Government Workers Overpaid?
• Downbeat data drives stocks higher while yields dive - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Fact-Checking The 'Fact-Checking' New York Times.
• FOMC Minutes Show "Vast Majority" Expect Economy To Cool, See Deflationary Effects Of AI.
• Americans Are More Likely To Go To War With The Government Than Submit To The Draft.
• Stocks, Bonds, & Bullion Soar Amid Political Panic & Macro Meltdown On Holiday-Shortened Day.

Wall Street Journal:   

• Trump Expands Lead Over Biden as Age Worries Grow.
• ‘No One’s Pushing Me Out,’ Biden Says, as Pressure From Democrats Mounts.
• World’s Most Successful Party Stares at Sweeping Defeat in U.K. Election.
• Who’s Afraid of Kamala Harris? Team Biden is trying to scare Democrats that the Vice President is the only alternative if the President drops out.
• The ‘MAGA Supreme Court’ Doesn’t Exist. Democrats are fuming, but look at the record of the cases this term.
• These Are the Best U.S. National Parks—and They’re Not Even That Crowded.
• Saks Owner to Buy Neiman Marcus, With Help From Amazon.
• Investor Group Raises Macy’s Buyout Offer, Again.

CNBC:

• Delta goes pasta-only for thousands of international travelers after ‘spoiled’ food forced a flight to divert.
• Southwest Airlines adopts ‘poison pill’ to fend off activist Elliott Management.
• Fed says it’s not ready to cut rates until ‘greater confidence’ inflation is moving to 2% goal.

MarketWatch.com:

• ‘None of these will survive’: Supreme Court’s immunity decision may kill all the criminal cases against Trump.
• Betting markets give Harris better chance of being Democratic nominee than Biden.

NewsMax:

• Caroline Sunshine: 'Doesn't Matter' Whether Biden Steps Aside.
• Rep. Tenney: Obama Really Running Govt.

Fox News:

• Singer confused why younger generation doesn't know the importance of freedom.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Joe Biden Threatens to Send Out Attorneys General to Go After Grocers in Plan to Combat His Food Inflation Crisis.
• Missouri RINOs Pull a Fast One — Remove the Pro-Trump Delegates Elected at the State Convention in May.
• Transgender Athlete Qualifies for U.S. Olympic Team.
• Leaked Dem Poll Shows Biden Heading for Battleground State Disaster, Blue Strongholds Now in Play.
• WHOA: Tucker Carlson Announces Interview with Crooked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
• “President Kamala Harris” – Karine Jean-Pierre Says the Quiet Part Out Loud As WH Reporters Repeatedly Question Biden’s Mental State (VIDEO).
• Purple States Take Note: Youngkin Saves Virginia From the Tyranny of California’s Gas Car Ban.
• ‘Prosecutorial Power’ Urged for 2020 ‘Zuckerbucks’ Influence.
• Former NFL Reporter On Biological Men in Women’s Sports: ‘Insanity’. 
• Ukraine May Default on Massive Debt as Early as August.

Epoch Times:

• The Trump-Biden Debate: Why Weren’t They Asked About China?
• China Cleans House Ahead of CCP’s Third Plenum.

Around X:

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Nothing to see here - just an old US patent for making hurricanes.

• @libsoftiktok

• INSANE. Bill #H4750 in MA would remove the word “father” on birth certificates in the name of “legal parentage equality.” The new law would replace the terms “man” & “woman” with “persons” and replace “mother” with “person who gave birth.” The bill already passed the House and is being weighed by the Senate.

• @JamesOKeefeIII
  

• BREAKING: ‘It’s the unspoken thing for children to see LGBTQ content,’ says Walt Disney’s Creative Marketing Director, Drag Queen Amit "Genie" Gurnani (@WishForGenie), into OMG's hidden camera. Gurnani adds, "I’d love to get a drag queen at Disneyland,” furthering, “I’m sure that would happen at some point." Gurnani insists, "Bob Iger is not axing LGBTQ content at all," supporting concerns that Disney is ramping up their LGBTQ content, influenced by DEI hiring practices and the inclusion of forced diverse storylines. (video)

• @simonateba
  

• BREAKING: Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey.   Bailey writes, "New York’s illicit prosecution, gag order, and sentencing of President Trump has undermined his ability to campaign. This overt meddling in a presidential election sabotages Missourians’ ability to cast a well-informed vote mere months before the election.

• @KanekoaTheGreat

• @DavidSacks: "What we're seeing here is a full-scale insurrection by media elites and other powers that be in the Democratic Party to subvert the democratic process. After all, we had 50 state primary elections in which voters gave Joe Biden all the necessary votes and delegates to be the Democratic nominee for President. You're seeing now a major effort to prevent the certification of that result. It's playing out in broad daylight in the press. So, I don't know what you could call this except an insurrection.

• @WallStreetApes

• Sheriff Mark Lamb Exposes The US Department Of Homeland Security Is Responsible For Creating The App To Import Illegal Migrants. The Cartel Is Using It To Make A Fortune Trafficking Illegals. “Who created that app?” “The DHS, Department of Homeland Security. Department of Homeland Security. And they love it, by the way.”

• @VigilantFox 

• SHOCKER: The US Pledges an Additional $2.3 Billion to Ukraine. This raises the total to $175+ billion since February 2022. Now, it's becoming increasingly popular to say that perhaps this war wasn't such a good idea. A British commentator recently said that Zelensky is merely a "puppet." (video)
• First Pfizer, now companies are getting SUED for pushing the deadly COVID-19 shots. In a stunning verdict, a former BlueCross BlueShield employee has been awarded nearly $700,000 in backpay and damages after refusing the company’s vaccine mandate. It gets even better. The federal jury found the firing of the BlueCross employee, Tanja Benton, who cited religious beliefs against the vaccine mandate, to be an unjustifiable decision. BlueCross BlueShield failed to “prove by a preponderance of the evidence either that it had offered a reasonable accommodation to Plaintiff or that it could not reasonably accommodate the Plaintiff’s religious beliefs without undue hardship,” the court stated. Benton’s legal victory sends a powerful message to each and every employer who mandated the COVID shots. Let this be one of many lawsuits to come hammering down on those who infringed on people’s religious beliefs.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,011,672 Reports(+1,127 from prior report) Through May 31st, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Stocks Close at Session Highs on Long-Term Rate Peak Speculation, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 +.30%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour -3.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.4 -17.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.5 +1.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.8 -.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +23.9% n/a
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 260.96 +.07:  Growth Rate +14.3% unch., P/E 21.1 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 329.84 +.19: Growth Rate +23.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 35.7 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .68 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.7% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.7% -.4 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 66.5%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 52.1%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -130 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Friday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for June is estimated to fall to 190K versus 272K in May.
• The Unemployment Rate for June is estimated at 4.0% versus 4.0% in May.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (WSM) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed Monetary Policy report, US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC net speculative position reports and the Fed balance sheet report could also impact global trading on Friday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Wednesday Watch

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