Saturday, September 14, 2024

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (WMT), (SLB) and (XLE).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:   

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

  • @EricLDaugh
  • @nicksortor
  • Good evening from Springfield, Ohio. I’ve spent all day so far speaking with locals that are FED UP with being SCREWED by the Biden Harris regime, who are supporting a migrant INVASION of their town. Crime is up. Tensions are rising. The situation is boiling over. People who have lived here for their ENTIRE LIVES are afraid to go outside. They’re afraid for their friends and relatives. So many have been forced to leave the town. It’s sickening. I’ve already seen so much in just the first day, and I have countless leads to investigate. (video)
  • @BehizyTweets
  • BREAKING: Trump's response to people who said he was angry at the debate is brilliant. "I’m angry about Venezuelan gangs taking over Aurora, Colorado and illegal Haitian migrants taking over Springfield Ohio. I’m angry about young American girls being r--d and murdered by savage criminal aliens. I’m angry about rampant inflation destroying our Middle Class—and THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE ANGRY TOO!" (video)
  • @charliekirk11
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @BGatesIsAPsycho
  • @TonySeruga
  • @Bubblebathgirl
  • @songpinganq
  • @FarmGirlCarrie
  • @amuse
  • @TONYxTWO
  • @DanCrenshawTX
  • No U.S. troops in active combat zones? How did ABC let Kamala get away with that during the debate? – U.S. sailors and Marines are fighting off Houthi attacks in Yemen. – Over 3,400 troops are engaged in Iraq and Syria. – We have forces in Western Africa battling terrorists. – Just this year, 3 U.S. soldiers were killed and 40 injured in Jordan by an Iranian-made drone. – Nearly 1,000 troops are still deployed in Syria, and 2,500 remain in Iraq under Operation Inherent Resolve. (video)
  • @DC_Draino 
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, September 13, 2024

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:   

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @LaraLogan
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @wideawake_media
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @BGatesIsAPsycho
  • @TonySeruga
  • @DC_Draino
  • @ajtourville
  • @_johnnymaga
  • @JohnRLottJr
  • @WallStreetApes
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.3 -4.5%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .99 -8.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 50.8 +1.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.5 -.57%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.56 +.59%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.4 -.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 137.0 +5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .90 -4.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 -16.2%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$242.0M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 -1.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 338.44 -.27%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 287 -3
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.2 -3.8%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 163.3 -1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 -1.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.3 -1.4%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 131.0 -.43%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.75 +.26%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -41.5 basis points -6.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 126.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 707.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.90% -7.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.8 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -37.3 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 +.4
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +11.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.64 +.08:  Growth Rate +14.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.1 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 349.13 +.16: Growth Rate +22.6% unch., P/E 32.1 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 -6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .72 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 7.0 basis point (2s/10s) +6.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.47% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 72.7% -.3 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.29% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 50.7%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 42.0%(+6.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -189 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -8 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Electric Vehicles -.6% 2) Pharma +.1% 3) Banks +.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LYFT, BA, PDD, MRNA, GRMN, ADBE and VSAT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DBI 2) ZI 3) SWKS 4) ADBE 5) RH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SLQT 2) PDD 3) VSAT 4) GRMN 5) OFIX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLK 3) KRE 4) XLE 5) XLC

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +2.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding +3.2% 2) Retail +3.0% 3) Disk Drives +2.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RH, RDFN, SMMT, ARHS, ASTS, UPWK, PENN, LAUR, VSCO, ETSY, CAL, BVN, TLN, W, IOVA, X, MSTR, U, BYON, VKTX, IBTA, MODG, APP, ASTH, NTGR, GATO, CLF, MEG, RKT, ANAB, AMR, SOC, DAWN, MGNI, GEV, ARM, NTLA, DNLI, CORZ, MLYS, UBER, IEP, Z, VRDN, SIG, MAG, ALK, TNGX, GLDD, HVT, FL, TPX, SG, TEN, ZI, TCMD, SBGI, PRO, ALHC, HI, CELH, IBKR, FMS, TGLS, CHCT, AFRM, HAE, GE, FIVE, CBRL, PFSI, THO, FOUR, CWH and FN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ALK 2) NGD 3) MGNI 4) IP 5) RH
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RH 2) IMRX 3) CNTA 4) VMAR 5) W
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SOXX 2) XOP 3) XLV 4) GDX 5) XLU
Charts:

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Empire Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to rise to -3.7 versus -4.7 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

  • (DECK) 6-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The JPMorgan US All-Stars Conference, Denver Gold Forum, TD Cowen Sip/Snack/Scrub Summit, European Society for Medical Oncology Conference, Cantor Healthcare Conference, (SWBI) annual meeting and the (EA) investor day could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST