Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -2.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -4.5% 2) Software -3.7% 3) Road and Rail -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ALTR, EQNR, DINO, META, IRTC, NNN, CVE, CHRW, EG, CRK, MET, BUD, XYL, WEN, CVI, SIMO, ICE, H, HVT, AR, MIDD, SPXC, EBAY, IDXX, FTAI, EBAY, IONQ, GRBK, REGN, MXL, CWH, OLED, UBER, OTEX, HUT, ARW, MGM, HUT, FORM, SNN, SMCI, LI, MGPI, COIN, GEL, NSIT, WSC, TFX, MAX, HOOD, ACHC, SN, MPWR, EL, APRTV, ROKU and HII
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BHC 2) WEN 3) MCHI 4) NXT 5) ROKU
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HOOD 2) ACHC 3) NVRI 4) EL 5) SMCI
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLB 3) SMH 4) XLY 5) JETS

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +1.6% 2) Shipping +.9% 3) Oil Service +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ROOT, LMND, PAYC, CVNA, AVDL, NXT, SXC, RBLX, OSPN, TWLO, CFLT, MDGL, MATX, ETR, RELY, KTB, TTMI, MYRG, IP, FDP, LAUR, IMAX, GEN, DNB, NVST, MCS, MBLY, ETSY, GPCR, BTU, VNT, WCC, UTZ, SFM, AME, ITRI, LPLA, GPRE, MO, NCLH, SNBR, FPI, ZEL, RVMD, SCI, PEN, COP, MRO, PCTY, JKS, BAND, ARGX, HLI, MBUU, MMSI, BKNG, DRVN, COLM, LNG, LAZ, SDRL, LNC, PHIN, CORT, OGN, WTW, BMY, CNNE, GVA, VAL, ALK and GDDY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IGT 2) NXT 3) LMND 4) IP 5) ALK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CVNA 2) TWLO 3) CFLT 4) RELY 5) NCLH
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) XAR 3) XLE 4) XLF 5) VGT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ARCB)/1.85
• (CAH)/1.62
• (CBOE)/2.19
• (CHTR)/8.66
• (CVX)/2.43
• (CHD)/.68
• (D)/.93
• (XOM)/1.88
• (LYB)/1.98
• (MGA)/1.39
• (PPL)/.43
• (RBC)/2.29
• (SPG)/3.03
• (TROW)/2.34
• (WAT)/2.68
• (W)/.13
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Oct. is estimated to fall to 105K versus 254K in Sept.
• The Unemployment Rate for Oct. is estimated at 4.1% versus 4.1% in Sept.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Sept. 
  

 9:45 am EST

• Final Global US Manufacturing PMI reading for Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Sept. is estimated unch. versus a -.1% decline in Aug.
• ISM Manufacturing for Oct. is estimated to rise to 47.6 versus 47.2 in Sept.
• ISM Prices Paid for Oct. is estimated to rise to 50.0 versus 48.3 in Sept.
  

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Oct. is estimated to rise to 15.8M versus 15.77M in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow update, Dallas Fed PCE for Sept., weekly US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +20.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.7 -3.5
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 31.7% of Issues Advancing, 66.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .84 -12.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$161.9M
  
• 69 New 52-Week Highs, 61 New Lows
• 56.3% (-3.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.4 -3.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 230.8 -1.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,944.8 -2.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (NEUTRAL) -14.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.8 +8.7%
  
• Vix 22.4 +10.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -6.7%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• If you are aware of any election integrity issues, please report them to the 𝕏 Election Integrity Community.
• How insane is it that the Biden-Harris Administration is suing states to KEEP non-citizens on their voter rolls?
• The mind-blowing thing is no identification to vote WHATSOEVER, not even a library card, is required in the gray states! (map)
• The 2024 Pennsylvania Republican vs Democrat vote is now over 500k better than the same day in 2020, when Biden’s victory margin was only 80k! Moreover, yesterday there were more Republican early votes than Democrat. Pennsylvania will be a decisive Republican victory. (pic)

• @LauraLoomer

• President Trump says there is massive election fraud taking place in Pennsylvania. “Law enforcement must act now.” (pic)
• BREAKING: @LoomerUnleashed has just caught @KamalaHarris’s campaign bussing in supporters to her event in DC this afternoon at the Elipse where she is giving her “closing arguments” about how Donald Trump and his supporters are a threat to Democracy. (video)
  

• @kylenabecker

• BREAKING. Massive election scandal in Wisconsin. A federal lawsuit has been filed against the Wisconsin Department of Transportation for allegedly turning over confidential DMV data containing the "personal info of millions of Americans and non-citizens for targeted voter registration and outreach efforts." @_CitizenAG filed the federal lawsuit after discovering Wisconsin's DOT gave the two nonprofits the confidential DMV data. This is a major breach of voter trust. (pic)
  

• @DC_Draino

• WOW!! The RNC just stopped Michigan Democrats from counting 168,000 “duplicate ballots”. This report was posted 4 hours ago and the RNC acted that quickly to fix it! 
• What a “coincidence” how every major Hollywood actor who endorsed Kamala has also been to the Diddy parties. (video)

• @TONYxTWO
  

• This TRUMP Caravan is in Puerto Rico !!! Let’s go!!! Puerto Ricans for Trump. (video)

• @nicksortor

• NEW: Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson says there is a “NATIONWIDE ISSUE with Dominion Voter Access Terminals,” preventing voters from making certain selections. Of course there is. According to her office, this “programming issue” CANNOT be fixed, and voters are being forced to deal with it. Why was this “issue” not caught during the testing period? And why can’t we just use paper ballots?! (video)
  

• @JackPosobiec

• BREAKING: Kamala supporters are holding drag shows around City Hall in Philadelphia as people wait to early vote. (video)

• @GardensR4Health

• Appalachian people are TOUGH. Elderly sisters were home when a 20ft wall of mud hit their house. Crawling onto a bed, the sisters slid with the house until they hit the river where they floated 5miles until the mattress spit…..then it got EVEN wilder….. wow! (video)

• @MTGrepp
  

• BREAKING NOW. Donald Trump just WON the Election by saying he will give full back pay to ALL MiIitary who lost their job because of vaccine. “We're talking already about that where they will come back and get their full back pay”. THIS IS MASSIVE. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• WOW! Linemen Strike in North Carolina. “Nobody's working — So sorry, Asheville — We are not getting paid. It has been 8 weeks. We have not gotten a single penny” Kamala Harris left Hurricane Helene victims AND workers with nothing. Reminder she just sent over $425m to Ukraine. (video)
• This is Kamala Harris’ America. Senator Dan McConchie: “We've just passed the largest budget in Illinois State history — includes almost a billion in tax increases and nearly a billion dollars on the migrant crisis. SO WE ACTUALLY RAISED YOUR TAXES JUST TO SPEND ON MIGRANTS”. Democrats will raise taxes on the American People to pay for their illegal migrants. You can not trust them and here is the proof. (video)
  

• @CharlieKirk11

• BREAKING: Trump announces that his administration will seize the assets of criminal gangs and drug cartels and use them to set up a compensation fund for the victims of migrant crime. BOOM!! (video)
• Democrats refuse to pass the SAVE Act because it would require voters to prove they're actually citizens. They are suing to keep Georgia from using surveillance cameras on unmanned drop boxes. They are suing to keep Virginia from cleaning its voter rolls of non-citizens. In California, it is now against the law to verify a voter's identity before they cast a vote. In Pennsylvania, operatives are wearing large "VOTER PROTECTION" lanyards, a blatant effort to intimidate voters. Kamala Harris just named Marc Elias to lead its strategy on campaign recounts. Elias will not commit to accepting the outcome of the election. Do not be intimidated or overwhelmed. Turn out to vote. Chase the votes of your friends and family. Too big to rig. VOTE!!

• @America

• BRETT FAVRE: “I want to address the comment that Joe Biden made yesterday that said the supporters of Donald Trump are garbage.. How dare he say that. Looking out I see police officers, teachers, nurses, grandparents, students.. everyday Americans that make this country great”. (video)

• @BehizyTweets
  

• BREAKING: GOP Chair Michael Whatley just announced on stage at the Trump rally in Pennsylvania that they have filed a MASSIVE lawsuit against election officials in Delaware & Bucks County for stopping long lines of likely Republican voters from voting. "I'm proud tonight to tell you that the Trump Vance campaign has just filed a huge lawsuit against Bucks County for turning away our voters." (video) 
• WATCH: Democrat voters said Republicans hate immigrants, and a LEGAL Haitian Republican immigrant stepped up and crushed all of them. "Democrats are at a point right now where they are shipping a bunch of illegal immigrants... We have CRIMINALS from my own country traveling here to the border. And they are placing them in the black communities." "They are taking funds away from the people who were there. So, as an immigrant, I think it's the worst thing for this country for Black & Hispanic people to vote Democrats." (video)

• @jackunheard

• Vivek is working a shift as a garbage man after Biden called all MAGA supporters “garbage.” This is so legendary. (video)
  

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Pfizer HQ in France surrounded by Protestors screaming “Assaassins”. The whole World continues to wake up to Pfizer’s crimes. (video)

• @SpeakerJohnson

• Democrat donor platform ActBlue may have ILLEGALLY funneled donations from China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela and other countries in the names of Americans—without their consent. The @HouseAdmin Committee is working to get the American people answers they DESERVE. (video)
  

• @HustleBitch_
  

• #BREAKING: Weather war modification induced flooding is hitting Valencia, Spain with BIBLICAL massive rain flooding and mudslides! Chiva already hit with MASSIVE 14 inches (343 mm) of rain in only 4 hours!! HAARP is just getting started! (video)

• @JamesMelville

• “The greatest perpetrator of misinformation during the pandemic has been the United States government.” > Johns Hopkins Surgeon, Dr. Martin Makary. (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• WATCH: A major warning sign for Kamala Harris in Michigan - the BBC spoke to residents of the heavily Muslim city of Dearborn and they broadly OPPOSE her candidacy. They are "long-time" Democrats. (video)

• @newstart_2024
  

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: "I mean, one of the telling things that happened this week is that Bill Gates made his first political contribution in history. He gave $50 million to Kamala Harris. Now, do you think he did that because, out of a patriotic impulse? And do you think he did that out of a humanitarian impulse? He did that to protect his wealth and his system, which he calls philanthrocapitalism, which is a way of making yourself rich by pretending to give money away to good causes. And he wants to keep that. He just got indicted in the Netherlands and is going to trial. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.5 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.6 +.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.4 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.33%.

• S&P 500 futures -.30%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.43%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, US Election Integrity Concerns, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Restaurant/Semi Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 +.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.57% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.07%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.90 euros/megawatt-hour -4.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.4 +7.0 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -.6 +5.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.9 -.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(259 of 500 reporting) +8.7% +2.3 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.37 +.06:  Growth Rate +15.0% unch., P/E 21.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.69% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +33.9% -3.2 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 371.10 +.18: Growth Rate +30.3% unch., P/E 32.6 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.16 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 11.5 basis point (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow Forecast +2.79% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.9 unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 71.9%(-2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.9%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +165 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +42 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +123 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long