Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 +.02%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.57% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.07%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.90 euros/megawatt-hour -4.6%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.4 +7.0 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -.6 +5.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.9 -.9 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(259 of 500 reporting) +8.7% +2.3 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.37 +.06: Growth Rate +15.0% unch., P/E 21.8 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.69% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +33.9% -3.2 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 371.10 +.18: Growth Rate +30.3% unch., P/E 32.6 +.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.16 +1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 11.5 basis point (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow Forecast +2.79% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.9 unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 71.9%(-2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.9%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +165 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +42 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +123 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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