Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.6 -.3%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% +3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 113.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.8%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.3 +.2 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.8 -3.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.1 +2.3 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +18.4% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.07 +.18: Growth Rate +14.5% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.69% +3.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.88 +.66: Growth Rate +28.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.5 +.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +20.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .83 +8.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 2.75 basis point (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.54% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.6 -9.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 72.9%(-7.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 61.0%(-8.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -242 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +2,229 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +121 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my utility/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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