Friday, October 11, 2024

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Hurricane Rebuilding Expectations, Short-Covering, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.58 +.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.63% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.90 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.3 -1.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.7 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.4 -3.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(30 of 500 reporting) +7.3% -6.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.10 +.01:  Growth Rate +14.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.76 +.34: Growth Rate +28.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 -7.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +11.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 13.25 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.1 unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.55% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 84.9%(+6.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 67.2%(+6.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +435 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +383 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +153 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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