Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.55 +.06%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.64% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 106.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.3 euros/megawatt-hour +5.1%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.2 -2.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.1 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.6 -1.0 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(25 of 500 reporting) +13.5% -2.6 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.09 unch.: Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.7 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.42 +.24: Growth Rate +28.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 +6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .90 +12.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 10.25 basis point (2s/10s) +5.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.1 -2.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% +4.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.55% +30.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 81.3%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 62.6%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +122 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +125 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in tech sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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