Thursday, October 10, 2024

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Hurricane Aftermath, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Yen Strength, Consumer Discretionary/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.55 +.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.64% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.3 euros/megawatt-hour +5.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.2 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.1 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.6 -1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(25 of 500 reporting) +13.5% -2.6 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.09 unch.:  Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.42 +.24: Growth Rate +28.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .90 +12.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 10.25 basis point (2s/10s) +5.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.1 -2.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% +4.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.55% +30.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 81.3%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 62.6%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +122 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +125 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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