Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.3 -.3%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.64% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 99.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.40 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.5 +.3 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.1 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.1 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(121 of 500 reporting) +2.1% -3.0 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.13 +.35: Growth Rate +14.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.65% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 369.78 +.18: Growth Rate +29.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.8 -.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 -5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +5.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 15.75 basis point (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.43% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 46.9 +.1 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 66.4%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.0%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -174 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +77 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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