Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.4 -.01%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.61% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.8%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.4 +.4 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.1 +.8 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.6 -.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(49 of 500 reporting) +5.9% +.6 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.32 +.07: Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.8 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 367.59 +.23: Growth Rate +29.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.6 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 -14.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .92 -10.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 7.75 basis point (2s/10s) unch.
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.7 +.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% +2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 86.0%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 66.2%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +390 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +41 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +173 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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