Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.4 -.03%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.64% +3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.9 +8.5 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.1 +1.0 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.2 -.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(65 of 500 reporting) +6.2% +.3 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.35 +.03: Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.9 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.63% -3.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 367.75 +.16: Growth Rate +29.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .79 +7.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .88 -4.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 10.75 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.42% +20.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.0 -.7 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 72.0%(-13.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 52.3%(-13.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +431 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -130 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +103 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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