Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.58 -.16%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% -3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.3 unch.
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -28.8 +4.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.7 -.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(23 of 500 reporting) +16.1% -2.3 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.07 unch.: Growth Rate +14.5% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.94 +.06: Growth Rate +28.5% unch., P/E 31.6 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 -12.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .78 -5.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 5.75 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.23% +69.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 49.9 +1.3 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 78.0%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 63.8%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +610 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -297 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +174 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/biotech/tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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