Tuesday, October 08, 2024

Stocks Surging into Close on Rotation into FANG+, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.58 -.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.3 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -28.8 +4.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.7 -.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(23 of 500 reporting) +16.1% -2.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.07 unch.:  Growth Rate +14.5% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.94 +.06: Growth Rate +28.5% unch., P/E 31.6 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 -12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .78 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 5.75 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.23% +69.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 49.9 +1.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 78.0%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 63.8%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +610 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -297 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +174 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/biotech/tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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