Monday, October 28, 2024

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Trump Poll Surge, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Yen Weakness, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 -.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.60% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.24%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.50 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.6 +2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.8 -1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.1 -4.0 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(185 of 500 reporting) +3.4% +.6 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.31 +.06:  Growth Rate +15.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.64% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +37.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 370.75 +.79: Growth Rate +30.2% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.9 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +11.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 13.25 basis point (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.31% -12.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.6 -2.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 69.2%(-5.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 45.9%(-5.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +150 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +111 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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