Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 -.03%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.60% -3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.24%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.50 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.6 +2.5 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.8 -1.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.1 -4.0 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(185 of 500 reporting) +3.4% +.6 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.31 +.06: Growth Rate +15.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.64% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +37.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 370.75 +.79: Growth Rate +30.2% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.9 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +11.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 13.25 basis point (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.31% -12.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.6 -2.3 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 69.2%(-5.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 45.9%(-5.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +150 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +111 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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