Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Data, China Stimulus Hopes, US Port Strike Can-Kicking, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.0 -7.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .81 +23.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.3 +9.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.8 +.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 +1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.3 -7.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 160.0 +14.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 +10.5%

• NYSE Arms .66 -21.4%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$179.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 305.3 -6.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 238 -11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.9 -2.7%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 172.1 -2.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.8 +1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.7 -.72%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 165.7 +3.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.14 +.01%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -19.75 basis points +14.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 135.0 +8.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 721.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.7 -.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.1 +9.7 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.5 +6.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.4 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +18.4% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.89 -.03:  Growth Rate +14.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.22 +.20: Growth Rate +28.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.1 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .70 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .75 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve 5.25 basis point (2s/10s) -8.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.54% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 58.3 -.8 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 81.1%(+37.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 72.2%(+33.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,105 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +1,470 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +208 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long