Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 -.13%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.59% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.08%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.87 euros/megawatt-hour +.82%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.4 +2.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.6 +.2 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.0 +1.1 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(210 of 500 reporting) +6.4% +3.0 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.31 unch.: Growth Rate +15.0% unch., P/E 21.7 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.70% +6.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +37.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 370.92 +.17: Growth Rate +30.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.15 +2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 15.0 basis point (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.79% -52.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.9 -2.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% -1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 71.4%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 48.1%(+3.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +433 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +102 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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