Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Yen Weakness, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.59% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.08%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.87 euros/megawatt-hour +.82%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.4 +2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.6 +.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.0 +1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(210 of 500 reporting) +6.4% +3.0 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.31 unch.:  Growth Rate +15.0% unch., P/E 21.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.70% +6.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +37.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 370.92 +.17: Growth Rate +30.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.15 +2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 15.0 basis point (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.79% -52.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.9 -2.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 71.4%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 48.1%(+3.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +433 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +102 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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