Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.42 -.33%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.63% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 106.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.0 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -3.0 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.9 +4.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.1 -.2 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(40 of 500 reporting) +5.3% -2.0 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.25 -.10: Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.8 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 367.36 +.28: Growth Rate +29.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 +8.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.02 -6.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 7.75 basis point (2s/10s) -6.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.3 -.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.55% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 82.5%(+5.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 61.7%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -770 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -133 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +122 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment