Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.4 +.07%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.98%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.70 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.2 +.8 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.9 +1.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.1 -.2 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(98 of 500 reporting) +5.1% -1.6 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.78 -.02: Growth Rate +14.8% unch., P/E 21.8 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.63% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 369.61 +.24: Growth Rate +29.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .96 +17.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 16.5 basis point (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.43% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 46.8 -2.7 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 68.3%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 46.7%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +54 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +155 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/utility sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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